October 20, 2025/CSL Research
The outlook for Nigeria’s telecommunications market remains broadly positive, supported by a convergence of favourable structural, technological, and demographic factors. As one of Africa’s most dynamic telecom landscapes, Nigeria benefits from its large population, rapid urbanisation, and rising digital literacy—all of which provide a strong foundation for sustained industry expansion.
A key driver of future growth is the continued migration to advanced mobile technologies. The ongoing rollout of 4G and the early‑stage deployment of 5G networks are improving both coverage and service quality, enabling faster and more reliable internet connectivity. These advancements are particularly critical given the surging demand for high‑speed data among Nigeria’s increasingly digital‑first consumers. Moreover, internet penetration remains relatively low compared to global standards, highlighting significant room for expansion, especially in rural and semi‑ urban areas where connectivity gaps persist.
Investment in telecom infrastructure has accelerated in recent years, with major operators such as MTN Nigeria and Airtel Africa actively expanding their network footprints. These investments are enhancing service reliability and fostering greater digital inclusion, particularly in underserved regions. As more Nigerians come online, data consumption is expected to rise sharply, driven by the proliferation of affordable smartphones, growth in video streaming, increased e‑commerce activity, remote work adoption, and expanding digital financial services.
One of the most promising growth frontiers is mobile money. Although Nigeria’s telecom‑led fintech ecosystem is still nascent, successful models in Kenya (M‑Pesa) and Ghana (MTN MoMo) demonstrate the transformative potential of telco‑driven financial services. Nigeria’s shift from cash to digital payments—spurred by the Central Bank’s financial inclusion initiatives and an expanding agent network—is poised to position mobile money as a major revenue stream for operators, diversifying income beyond traditional voice and data services.
Looking ahead, Nigeria’s youthful and increasingly tech‑savvy population will continue to underpin demand for digital connectivity and services. Given these dynamics, our 2025 outlook for the Nigerian telecom sector remains highly positive. Key growth catalysts include rising data consumption, continued network expansion, rapid fintech adoption, and a supportive regulatory environment, all pointing to sustained long‑term momentum.
We reiterate our BUY recommendations on MTN Nigeria (MTNN) and Airtel Africa, underpinned by their strong fundamentals, scale efficiencies, and strategic market positioning. Our target prices of N622.01/s for MTNN and N3,230.30/s for Airtel Africa reflect our confidence in their ability to deliver robust shareholder returns over the medium to long term.
To download the full report, please click on the link below.
CSL Research Telecoms Sector Report – Rising From The Ashes.pdf
