October 20, 2025/United Capital Report

Global Markets:

  United States

• The Fed’s latest Beige Book showed that US economic activity has been “little changed” in recent weeks, with employment generally stable across the districts.
• The US federal government is in a protracted shutdown (entering its third week).
• The Treasury estimates the shutdown is costing the economy up to $15 billion per week in lost output.
• US equities posted modest gains over the week, aided by stronger tech and AI-related stock performance.Euro Area

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its Euro Area 2025 growth forecast from 1.0% to 1.2%.
• However, it trimmed its 2026 forecast slightly from 1.2% to 1.1%.
• FTSE 100 rose by 0.09% and Stoxx 600 Index climbed by 1.33%.

  Asia

• China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped 0.3% in September. This is slightly less than the 0.4% fall in August.
• China’s September exports rose by 8.3% year on year, beating expectations.
• Japan’s core machinery orders fell by 0.9% in August from the previous month.
• The SCHOMP appreciated by 0.49% on improved sentiment and policy support hopes.

  Oil Markets

• Crude oil market closed the week in the red territory.
• This was due to uncertainty over global energy supplies after US President Trump and Russian President Putin agreed to meet in Hungary to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

Outlook:

Next week, market attention will shift from trade tensions to corporate earnings and Central Banks’ signals. Tech stocks may stay supported by upbeat chipmaker guidance, while bond yields could rise if inflation data remains sticky. Oil prices may stay volatile as traders weigh OPEC+ supply restraint, Chinese demand, and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Domestic Economy:

   Nigeria’s Headline Inflation Eased by 2.10% in September

• Headline inflation dropped to 18.02% year on year in September 2025, down from 20.12% in August.
• Food inflation saw a marked decline from 21.87% to 16.87% year on year.
• Core inflation (excluding volatile items like food and fuel) also eased.

   IMF Raises Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection to 3.9% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
• In its July 2025 update, the IMF had projected 3.4% growth for 2025.
• Stronger GDP growth boosts business activity and investor confidence.

Equity Market:

• NGX-ASI rose by 1.35% week on week (w/w), closing at 148,977.64 points.
• Market capitalisation rose to ₦94.56tn due to buy interests.
• The Nigerian equity year-to-date return stood at 44.74%.

Money Market:

• The Nigeria Treasury Bills (NTBs) market traded bullish this week, with strong demand driving a decline in average yields across short and mid-tenor instruments.
• Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (OVR) settled at 24.50% and 24.84% respectively.
• Open Market Operations (OMO) yield closed at 18.87% for the 264-day paper.

Outlook:

Equity Market

Expectations of Q3, 2025 results should drive the equity market next week. Low yield in the fixed income securities should also lift the equity market.

Fixed Income Market

The fixed income market is expected to stay bullish as strong demand keeps NTBs and bond yields under pressure. Investors might position ahead of further decline of yields.