October 23, 2025/Cordros Report
Guinness Nigeria Plc (GUINNESS) published their 15M-25 unaudited results after market close yesterday, posting an EPS of NGN4.60 in Q3-25 (Q3-24: NGN1.19). Consequently, EPS for the 15-month period settled at NGN12.00. The performance in the period was driven by strong topline growth, improved margins, and lower finance costs, reflecting the benefits of a more stable operating environment.
GUINNESS revenue grew by 64.7% y/y to NGN98.07 billion in Q3-25 (15M-25: NGN299.49 billion) driven by moderate volume recovery, effective pricing initiatives across key brands, and continued traction in the premium and mainstream segments. This reflects the sustained recovery in consumer demand and pricing discipline amid moderating inflation and improved FX liquidity. However, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, revenue declined by 49.8%, reflecting seasonal demand moderation.
Gross margin improved by 66bps y/y to 37.1% in the period (15M-25: 31.1%), supported by strong topline growth (+64.7% y/y) and a lower cost-to-sales ratio (Q3-25: 62.9% | Q3-24: 69.5%). Although cost of sales rose by 49.1% y/y, the increase was slower relative to revenue growth, reflecting easing input cost pressures amid a more stable FX environment.
EBIT and EBITDA margins improved by 36bps y/y and 33bps y/y to 16.8% and 20.9%, respectively. This improvement came despite a 72.1% y/y rise in operating expenses, reflecting enhanced operating leverage from stronger sales and cost discipline.
Further down, net finance costs declined by 84.8% y/y to NGN616.36 million in Q3-25, supported by an 855.6x y/y surge in finance income, largely attributed to gains on the remeasurement of foreign currency balances (15M-25: NGN89.59 billion | 2024FY: NGN21.76 billion).
As a result, profit before tax (PBT) surged to NGN15.86 billion in Q3-25 (Q3-24: NGN3.82 billion |15M-25: NGN43.80 billion), while profit after tax (PAT) rose sharply to NGN10.08 billion (Q3-24: NGN2.60 billion | 15M-25: NGN26.28 billion).
Comment: GUINNESS delivered an impressive performance in the period, buoyed by sustained revenue growth, improved cost efficiency, and reduced finance costs. The combination of pricing gains, easing input cost pressures, and stable FX conditions drove margin expansion and a sharp uptick in profitability. Looking ahead, we expect the brewer to sustain this positive momentum, supported by strong brand equity, product innovation, and a more stable macroeconomic backdrop. However, stiff competition in the sector remains a key risk. Our estimates are currently under review.
