October 27, 2025/United Capital Report

Global Markets:

  United States

• US Treasury reported that the country’s gross national debt exceeded $38 trillion, setting a new record high.
• The 2025 federal government shutdown is now in its fourth week. This has stalled several key macroeconomic data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
• This includes the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was delayed due to the shutdown.
• US stocks advanced this week, lifted by strong tech earnings and growing expectations of a potential Fed rate cut later this month

  Euro Area

• Headline CPI stood at 3.8% year on year in September.
• This is the same rate as in August despite expectations that it might rise toward 4.0%.
• FTSE 100 rose by 2.39% and Stoxx 600 Index climbed by 1.45%.

  Asia

• China’s economy grew by 4.8% year on year in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, up from 4.6% in Q3 2024.
• In September, industrial output rose about 6.5% year on year, while retail sales growth slowed to around 3.0%.
• China’s benchmark loan prime rates (1-year at 3.0%, 5-year at 3.5%) were held unchanged in October, the fifth consecutive month of no change.
• The SCHOMP appreciated by 2.15% supported by improved investor sentiment despite escalating US – China trade tensions.

  Oil Markets

• Crude oil market closed the week in the Green territory.
• Oil prices rose this week, driven by geopolitical tensions particularly US sanctions on Russian oil and shifting supply expectations, although broader concerns about oversupply and weak demand continue to weigh on the market.

Outlook:

Equity markets may trade cautiously next week as earnings season winds down. Bond yields could face modest upward pressure if data reinforces expectations of prolonged high rates. Meanwhile, oil prices are set to remain volatile, influenced by OPEC+ signals and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Domestic Economy:

   Nigeria’s Debt Hits ₦152.4 Trillion

• Nigeria’s total public debt reached ₦152.4 trillion as of end-June 2025. This represents a 2% increase from the previous quarter.
• Although the debt position increased in June 2025 from its position in March 2025, government is able to service the debt better and cheaper in June than in March because of higher revenue and lower interest rate in June than in March.

   Nigeria Seeks Higher OPEC Quota to Boost Oil Revenue

• Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, announced that Nigeria will seek a higher oil production quota from OPEC in their next meeting in November.
• This move aims to reflect the country’s increased production capacity and to ensure fair representation within the organisation.
• The call for an increased quota comes at a time when Nigeria is experiencing a resurgence in oil production.

Equity Market:

• NGX-ASI rose by 4.47% week on week (w/w), closing at 155,640.55 points.
• Market capitalisation rose to ₦98.79tn due to buy interests.
• The Nigerian equity year to date return stood at 51.22%.

Money Market:

• The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) market experienced marginal yield increase this week, reflecting slightly higher borrowing costs amid moderate investor demand.
• Open Repo Rate (OPR) and Overnight Rate (OVR) settled at 24.50% and 24.86% respectively.
• Open Market Operations (OMO) yield closed at 20.94% for the 257-day paper.

Outlook:

Equity Market

The equity market is expected to maintain its positive momentum next week, buoyed by potential Q3 earnings releases that could continue to lift investor sentiment.

Fixed Income Market

The fixed income market is expected to stay bullish as strong demand may increase price which will lead to drop in yield. Investors might position ahead of further decline of yields.