October 29, 2025/Cordros Report

Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc (GTCO) released its unaudited 9M-25 results yesterday (28 October), reporting a 46.1% y/y decline in earnings per share (EPS) to NGN20.71 (9M-24: NGN38.41). The performance reflected a steep contraction in non-interest income (-56.5% y/y), which offset growth in interest income (+25.6% y/y).

Interest income advanced by 25.6% y/y to NGN1.23 trillion, supported by higher income on investment securities (+39.9% y/y), loans to customers (+14.9% y/y) and cash and bank balances (+15.1% y/y). This performance was aided by the 14.2% YTD growth in the HoldCo’s earning assets, comprising investment securities (+18.4% YTD), customer loans (+16.5% YTD), and cash balances (+9.1% YTD).

Interest expense, however, surged by 40.2% y/y to NGN278.73 billion, driven by higher funding costs from customers (+41.5% y/y), financial institutions (+4.0% y/y) and borrowings (+43.3% y/y). Despite the cost pressures, net interest income grew 21.8% y/y to NGN952.14 billion, reflecting effective asset repricing. Adjusting for impairments, net interest income ex-LLE rose 22.9% y/y to NGN882.35 billion, supported by the group’s disciplined credit risk management (loan impairment charges: +9.8% y/y).

Further down, we saw GTCO’s non-interest income contract by 56.5% y/y to NGN346.28 billion in 9M-25. While fee and commission income (+15.6% y/y), gains on FX trading (+18.1% y/y), forward transactions (+52.4% y/y), and investment securities (+106.6% y/y) improved, they were insufficient to offset the fair value loss of NGN49.17 billion recorded in the period (9M-24: NGN523.22 billion gain). Consequently, operating income fell 18.9% y/y to NGN1.23 trillion.

Operating expenses rose by 11.3% y/y to NGN327.83 billion, driven by higher personnel costs (+28.1% y/y), AMCON levy (+38.7% y/y), depreciation (+31.4% y/y), and occupancy costs (+35.9% y/y). As a result, the cost-to-income ratio deteriorated to 21.0% (9M-24: 15.3%).

Pre-tax profit declined 26.1% y/y to NGN900.81 billion, while higher effective taxation (+49.6% y/y) further compressed bottom-line earnings. Consequently, PAT dropped by 35.5% y/y to NGN699.64 billion.

Comment: GTCO’s 9M-25 performance underscores resilient core operations but highlights the expected tapering of non-funded gains spurred by the relative stability of the naira. While the boost in GTCO’s interest-earning assets should continue to support funded income, cost pressures and fair value losses pose downside risks to earnings momentum in Q4-25. Our estimates are under review.