Oando’s 9M:2025 group revenue fell to NGN2.541 trn in 9M:2025 from NGN3.189 trn a year earlier, a 20.32% decline. This was largely due to weaker downstream trading – notably the suspension of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) imports following the Dangote Refinery ramp-up – offsetting stronger upstream sales. Gross profit declined 41.75% to NGN113.0 bn (9M 2024: NGN194.4 bn).  Administrative expenses fell sharply (–72.72% to NGN86.3 bn) as large foreign‐exchange losses and legal provisions booked in 9M 2024 were absent in 2025. 

After accounting for a significant reversal of impairments (NGN150.7 bn reversal vs. NGN25.5 bn charge in 9M 2024) and a large tax credit (driven by the reversal of old tax provisions and utilization of capital allowances), Oando reported profit after tax of NGN201.3 bn, up 164.47% from NGN76.3 bn a year earlier. Basic EPS rose to NGN16.00 (9M 2024: NGN6.08), a 166.67% increase. The Group’s cash flow showed marked improvement: net cash used in operating activities was NGN234.9 bn (versus NGN495.1 bn used in 9M 2024) even as capex spiked by 177.78% to NGN74.9 bn. 

We expect Oando’s full-year 2025 performance to remain production-driven, with projected output around 40,000 boepd and capex of USD120–130 million focused on drilling and facility upgrades. Crude trading volumes are projected at 25–35 MMbbl, while PMS trading will stay subdued pending market recovery. Ongoing capital restructuring and debt conversions should enhance liquidity and reduce leverage.

Although downstream margins remain pressured by the Dangote Refinery, stronger gas volumes, prudent cost management, and a USD59pb hedge will support earnings stability. Overall, we anticipate sustained upstream growth, improved balance-sheet flexibility, and stronger cash flows into FY2026. However, we maintain a SELL recommendation for Oando plc.

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