TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc released unaudited results for the nine months ended 30 September 2025. Group revenue declined to NGN587.59 bn in 9M:2025 from NGN793.90 bn a year earlier, a 25.99% drop. Gross profit fell 29.82% to NGN65.76 bn (9M:2024: NGN93.70 bn).

Operating profit slid 89.31% to NGN5.65 bn as weaker operating leverage and lower other income offset savings in selling costs. With finance costs up 27.98% to NGN20.55 bn, the Group recorded a pre-tax loss of NGN11.92 bn (vs NGN41.85 bn profit in 9M:2024) and PAT of NGN14.10 bn (vs NGN27.42 bn). Basic EPS printed NGN41.54 (9M:2024: NGN80.77). Operating cash flow improved to a net inflow of NGN23.61 bn (vs NGN7.36 bn), while shareholders funds declined to NGN47.40 bn as at 30 September 2025. 

We expect a subdued FY:2025 close relative to 2024, with full-year revenue tracking below the prior year given the 9M run-rate and ongoing volume discipline in retail and B2B channels. We believe gross margin will hover around 11 12% on product mix (lubricants and aviation) but remain capped by competitive pump pricing and sticky input costs. We anticipate opex restraint into Q4:2025, yet we expect finance costs to remain the principal earnings headwind nless borrowing costs ease through refinancing and tenor extension; interest cover is likely to stay below 1.00x through year-end.

We expect positive operating cash flow to be sustained by leaner inventories and tighter receivables, partially offset by financing outflows. Looking into 2026, we anticipate a modest earnings recovery contingent on firmer retail volumes, a steadier other-income line, and balance-sheet de-risking that reduces overdraft dependence and improves tenor mix. Until these catalysts are visible, we expect valuation to anchor more on P/BV than on earnings multiples, with any re-rating case resting on demonstrable reduction in net finance costs and stabilized margins. Therefore, we maintain a BUY recommendation on Total.

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