At the end of 9M:2025, United Bank for Africa (UBA) arrived at NGN537.53bn bottom-line, which represents a moderate 2.33% YoY increase. This underscores a similar rate of increase in gross earnings amid the 2.96% improvement to NGN2.47trn in the same period. Analysis of the report disclosed that this performance was mainly driven by core business income, which expanded by a modest 10.08% YoY to NGN1.98trn.

The higher interest income was primarily supported by interest earned on investment securities (+30.38% YoY to NGN1.03trn), while interest on cash (-24.00% YoY to NGN167.96bn) and loans (-0.86% YoY to NGN777.36bn) slowed down. Following the 16.27% YoY rise in interest expense to NGN808.72bn, net interest income settled at NGN1.17trn at the end of 9M:2025, representing a modest 6.18% YoY increase. 

Our outlook for UBA is optimistic based on the expectation of higher earnings. Although improvements across major income lines have been thin, reflecting the high base, we expect this trend to change from 2026 amid the return to normalized earnings. We envisage a sustained balance sheet growth, with a larger proportion of loans. This is expected to sustain the growth in core business income as interest rates gradually decline. Additionally, we expect non-interest income to provide support for earnings, driven mainly by fees and commission income. Hence, we hold a STRONG BUY rating on the stock.

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