The domestic stock market closed the week lower, extending its bearish trend amid still weak investor sentiment and the MPC’s unexpected decision to keep the MPR unchanged at 27.00%. Precisely, the All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 0.1% w/w to 143,520.53 points.

November 28, 2025/Cordros Report

Global 

According to the United States Department of Labour, initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ending 22 November, down from 222,000 in the prior week and below market expectations of 225,000. This print also came in below the 2024FY average of 223,370, reaffirming the labour market’s underlying resilience despite ongoing softness in hiring activity. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the largest declines were recorded in Kentucky (-1,115), New Jersey (-568) and Maryland (-382). Meanwhile, the most significant increases came from California (+8,219), Illinois (+2,967), and New York (+2,476). Similarly, the 4-week moving average eased to 223,750, marking a decline of 1,000 from the previous week’s reading of 224,750 and reinforcing the broadly stable trend in claims. Looking ahead, we maintain the view that layoffs will remain contained, keeping initial jobless claims at structurally low levels —consistent with the broad resilience of the US economy. Nonetheless, we flag emerging headwinds, specifically, (1) tighter trade and immigration policies, and (2) rising efficiency gains from increased AI integration, both of which could soften hiring sentiment in specific sectors. In our view, these factors present modest downside risks to employment growth over the near to medium term.

According to the US Census Bureau, retail sales grew by a modest 4.3% y/y in September (August: +5.0% y/y), reinforcing signs that consumer spending is beginning to cool. The deceleration reflects the mounting strain on households as tariff-driven price increases continue to filter through goods categories, eroding purchasing power and dampening discretionary spending. On a month-on-month basis, retail sales expanded by just +0.2% m/m (August: +0.6% m/m), undershooting market expectations of +0.4% m/m. The softer print was led by notable declines in goods, hobby, musical instrument, and bookstores (-2.5% y/y) as well as clothing retailers (-0.7% y/y) – segments typically more sensitive to shifts in consumer confidence and disposable income. These weaknesses emerged despite comparatively healthier performances in categories such as miscellaneous store retailers (+2.9% y/y) and gasoline stations (+2.0% y/y), where higher fuel prices provided a nominal lift to sales. Looking ahead, we expect consumer demand to remain subdued in the near term, reflecting the combined impact of elevated price pressures and softer hiring conditions. In our view tariff induced costs will continue to compress disposable incomes and restrain household purchasing power, keeping spending momentum muted.

Global Equities

Global equities advanced this week, supported by renewed optimism around artificial intelligence and rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Accordingly, US equities (DJIA: +2.6%; S&P 500: +3.2%) were on track to end the week higher after weaker-than-expected economic data – particularly retail sales and private payrolls – combined with dovish remarks from policymakers, strengthened market bets on a December rate cut. Sentiment was further boosted by renewed enthusiasm for AI and technology stocks, especially following reports that META is considering a multi-billion dollar deal for GOOGL’s AI chip technology. European equities (STOXX 600: +2.4%; FTSE 100: +1.8%) tracked Wall Street higher, further supported by optimism over a potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. In Asia, major indices (Nikkei 225: +3.3%; SSE: +1.1%) posted solid gains, mirroring the global trend and benefiting from signs of improved US–China relations as well as Japan’s newly approved stimulus package. Meanwhile, the MSCI Emerging and Frontier Markets (MSCI EM: +2.7%; MSCI FM: +1.7%) indices reflected broader global strength, buoyed by gains in China (+1.1%) and Vietnam (+2.8%), respectively. 

Domestic Economy

At the November meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) voted by a majority to keep the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 27.00%, following a 50bps cut at the previous meeting. The decision reflects the committee’s intention to consolidate the disinflation gains achieved through earlier tightening, thereby anchoring expectations and supporting a path toward low and stable consumer prices. Notably, the Committee signalled an easing bias by narrowing the asymmetric corridor to +50/-450bps (Previous: +250bps/-250bps) around the MPR. At the same time, the Committee retained all other key parameters: the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45.0% for Deposit Money Banks, 16.0% for Merchant Banks, and 75.0% for non-TSA public sector deposits, while maintaining the liquidity ratio at 30.0%. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to maintain its downward trajectory as underlying pressures continue to ease, supported by sustained naira stability, improved harvest outcomes, and relatively stable petroleum prices. Nonetheless, with inflation projected to remain in double digits through 2026, we believe the MPC will remain cautious. In our view, future policy rate cuts are likely to be gradual and measured, consistent with the Committee’s price stability mandate and its preference for a controlled easing cycle.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) increased by 1.0% m/m to 1.60 mb/d in October (September: 1.58 mb/d), marking a rebound after two consecutive months of decline. The improvement was supported by higher output across key terminals, notably Bonny (+25.6% m/m), Forcados (+25.0% m/m), Odudu (+5.3% m/m), Agbami (+4.9% m/m), Escravos (+4.5% m/m), and Brass (+1.3% m/m). These gains more than offset the significant contraction at Qua Iboe (–41.7% m/m) and the moderate decline at the Tulja–Okwuibome terminals (–2.8% m/m). Overall, the modest uptick in domestic production reflects the gradual restoration of operations following PENGASSAN’s suspension of industrial action in the preceding month. Looking ahead, we expect the combination of improved security conditions and rising investment across key upstream assets to keep production levels above the 2024FY average (1.55 mb/d).   That said, we are retaining our 2025E crude oil production forecast (including condensates) at 1.68 mb/d, well below the FG’s target of 2.06 mb/d, reflecting our conservative view on expected operational volatilities, including periodic maintenance, asset upgrades, and intermittent downtime across major terminals.
 
Capital Markets

Equities

The domestic stock market closed the week lower, extending its bearish trend amid still weak investor sentiment and the MPC’s unexpected decision to keep the MPR unchanged at 27.00%. Precisely, the All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 0.1% w/w to 143,520.53 points, weighed down by selloffs in BUACEMENT (-4.8%), NB (-2.6%), UBA (-1.2%), and OANDO (-2.9%). As a result, the MTD return settled at -6.9%, marking the first monthly decline since March 2025, while YTD gains eased to +39.4%. On market activity, trading volume and value increased by 55.2% w/w and 9.1% w/w, respectively. Sector performance was broadly negative as the Industrial Goods (-1.9%), Oil & Gas (-0.8%), Consumer Goods (-0.7%), and Insurance (-0.1%) indices closed lower, while the Banking (+0.7%) index was the sole gainer of the week. 

Looking ahead, we expect sentiment to improve in line with the historically positive performance typically seen in the final month of the year. This will be supported by bargain hunting in oversold large cap names, institutional portfolio rebalancing, and early positioning ahead of full year earnings. However, CGT related selloffs remain a key risk that could temper sentiment and constrain equity inflows.

Money Market and Fixed Income

Money Market

The OVN rate declined by 213bps to 22.7%, driven primarily by net positive system liquidity from OMO maturities (NGN1.11 trillion) exceeding debits from the FGN bond PMA (NGN583.52 billion). Banks’ activity at the SDF window moderated, following the 200bps SDF rate cut to 22.50%, with average placements dropping to NGN1.67 trillion (Prior week: NGN2.51 trillion), reflecting softer sterilized liquidity in the system. Consequently, the system’s average liquidity position tapered to NGN1.93 trillion (Prior week: NGN2.19 trillion), pointing to modest easing in short term funding pressures.

In the absence of any mop-up activity by the apex bank, we expect liquidity to remain buoyant, leading to a marginal decline in the OVN rate. This dynamic is broadly consistent with the CBN’s ongoing monetary easing bias, suggesting modest downward pressure on short-term money market rates in the near term.

Treasury Bills

Sentiments were net bearish in the Treasury bills market, with buyers focused on the NTB curve while offers dominated the OMO curve. Consequently, the average yield increased by 12bps to 19.2%. By segment, average NTB yields pared by 11bps to 16.8% while average OMO yields increased by 46bps to 21.9%.

Next week, we believe the relatively buoyant system liquidity will maintain the demand for NTBs, thus weighing on Treasury yields. Additionally, the DMO is scheduled to conduct an NTB PMA next Wednesday (December 3), with NGN700.00 billion worth of maturing bills on offer. At the auction, we anticipate downward repricing of stop rates, reflecting both strong liquidity and investor appetite along the NTB curve.

Bonds

The FGN bond secondary market was muted for most of the week as investors mainly focused on Monday’s PMA but turned bearish on the last trading day. Consequently, the average yield increased by 14bps to 15.6%. Across the curve, the average yield increased at the short (+14bps), mid (+16bps), and long (+3bps) segments following selloffs of the JUL-2030 (+37bps), APR-2032 (+58bps), and JAN-2042 (+18bps) bonds, respectively. At the FGN bond auction held on Monday, the DMO reopened the AUG-2030 and JUN-2032 instruments, offering a total of NGN460.00 billion. Aggregate investor demand reached NGN657.26 billion (Bid-to-offer: 1.4x), with the DMO ultimately allotting NGN583.52 billion (Bid-to-cover: 1.1x). Stop rates cleared higher at 15.90% (Previous: 15.83%) for the AUG-2030 and 16.00% (Previous: 15.85%) for the JUN-2032 papers.

In light of the MPC’s recent policy stance, we expect a gradual, albeit modest, decline in bond yields, supported further by the current liquidity surplus in the system.

Foreign Exchange

The naira appreciated this week by 0.7% w/w to NGN1,447.95/USD, as the robust supply from the CBN (USD186.60 million) and inflow from offshore players offset the strong local demand. Meanwhile, gross FX reserves increased for the nineteenth consecutive week, growing by a strong USD440.64 million w/w to USD44.56 billion (November 26). In the forwards market, the naira rates appreciated across the 1-month (+0.5% to NGN1,477.12/USD), 3-month (+0.9% to NGN1,525.58/USD), 6-month (+1.8% to NGN1,587.15/USD) and 1-year (+3.4% to NGN1,711.17/USD) contracts.

The naira is expected to remain stable, supported by robust FX liquidity. We expect the healthy FX reserves, favourable current account position, and firmer global monetary easing to reinforce foreign investor sentiment and stimulate FX market inflows.

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