November 28, 2025/CSL Report

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has published its October 2025 Oil Production Status Report, showing a marginal 0.82% increase in crude oil output (excluding condensates) compared to September. Average daily crude production inched up to 1.40 million barrels per day (mbpd), from 1.39 mbpd in the previous month.

Despite this slight improvement, crude output remained below Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota of 1.5 mbpd for the third consecutive month. Including condensates, total oil production stood at 1.60 mbpd in October, representing a 1.01% rise from the 1.58 mbpd recorded in September. Condensate production accounted for 196,028 barrels per day (bpd), slightly higher than the 191,373 bpd recorded in the prior month. Throughout the month, daily production fluctuated between 1.53 mbpd and 1.72 mbpd.

Production across Nigeria’s major oil terminals showed mixed trends in October 2025. The Forcados terminal remained the leading contributor, with output rising to 9.41 million barrels from 7.53 million barrels in September. The Bonny terminal also recorded an improvement, producing 7.93 million barrels compared with 6.32 million barrels in the previous month.

In contrast, Qua Iboe registered a decline, with production dropping to 2.73 million barrels from 4.69 million barrels in September. Meanwhile, output at the Escravos terminal rose slightly to 4.44 million barrels, up from 4.25 million barrels in the prior month.

Looking ahead, the Commission has set an ambitious goal of increasing crude production to 2.5 mbpd by 2026. This target is anchored on planned initiatives to unlock deepwater reserves, revive dormant fields, and fast-track upstream project approval. Despite these plans, near-term production prospects remain uncertain.

Structural bottlenecks and persistent security challenges continue to weigh on output, reinforcing the need for a cautious outlook. Based on current dynamics, we maintain our projections for average crude production at 1.69 mbpd in 2025, rising modestly to 1.77 mbpd in 2026, still below the government’s target. Reaching the 2.5 mbpd benchmark will require sustained, long-term efforts. Increased participation from international oil companies (IOCs), particularly in deepwater developments, will be crucial.

Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 28 November 2025 – Crude Oil .pdf​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​