December 2, 2025/CSL Update
Nigeria’s private sector continued to expand in November, supported by easing inflation and a steady rise in business activity. The latest Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recorded a headline figure of 53.6, comfortably above the 50.0 threshold that signals growth. Although marginally lower than October’s reading of 54.0, the November result still reflects an overall improvement in business conditions across agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale and retail, and services.
Growth was driven largely by stronger demand, as new orders increased at their fastest rate in three months. This acceleration is linked to improved customer acquisition, the introduction of new products, and a more favourable inflation environment. Headline inflation eased from 18.02% in September to 16.05% in October, providing much-needed relief for businesses.
With cost pressures easing, input cost inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly five years, supported by slower increases in purchase prices and staff-related expenses. This enabled firms to moderate the pace of their output price increases, resulting in the sixth decline in output price inflation in seven months. Together, these trends—rising demand and softening cost pressures—helped maintain positive momentum across Nigeria’s private sector in November. Although job creation slowed and remained modest, purchasing activity rose sharply, reaching its highest level in seven months. This surge in input buying allowed firms to rebuild inventories at the fastest pace since mid-2023, as businesses prepared for stronger
customer demand during the festive season.
However, despite the added operational capacity, backlogs of work re-emerged, driven by delays in customer payments and persistent liquidity constraints. Business confidence weakened for the fifth consecutive month, hitting its lowest level since May. Nonetheless, sentiment remained broadly positive, supported by firms’ expectations for operational expansion and planned investments in the months ahead.
The positive PMI reading for November carries important macroeconomic implications. Building on Nigeria’s Q3 GDP growth and supported by easing inflation, the continued expansion of private-sector activity strengthens expectations of a more stable growth trajectory heading into 2026. Key sectors such as manufacturing and services—major contributors to GDP—are well positioned to build on this momentum, supported by currency stabilisation, modest improvements in domestic demand, and declining cost pressures.
However, several persistent challenges could still limit the pace of recovery. Weak consumer purchasing power, elevated logistics and energy costs, and tight liquidity conditions continue to constrain business operations and access to working capital. Sustaining the recovery will require ongoing efforts to control inflation, enhance infrastructure delivery, improve payment cycles across value chains, and maintain consistent and transparent FX management to restore and reinforce business confidence.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 02 December 2025 – PMI.pdf
