December 3, 2025/CSL Report

Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that Nigeria’s agricultural output rose by 3.8% y/y in Q3, up from 2.8% y/y in the previous quarter, providing a significant buffer against the softer performance in the industrial sector. The sector’s improved momentum was driven primarily by stronger crop production ahead of the main harvest season, supported by targeted government interventions to boost food output and enhance food security.

Notably, the rollout of a new mechanization programme—featuring the distribution of roughly 2,000 tractors and over 9,000 specialized farming tools—helped stimulate activity across the agricultural value chain.

Growth was relatively broad-based across sub-sectors. Livestock expanded by 3.5% y/y, more than double the 1.6% y/y recorded in Q2, while forestry posted a marked improvement at 4.7% y/y, up from 1.7% y/y in the previous quarter. In contrast, the fishing sub-sector slowed to 1.6% y/y from 2.6% y/y, likely reflecting seasonal trends and persistent coastal security issues. Overall, the rebound in agriculture raised the sector’s contribution to real GDP to 31.2% in Q3 2025, up from 26.2% in the prior quarter. This recovery follows a challenging period marked by insecurity, climate shocks, rising input costs, and inflation-driven pressures on production and distribution.

Despite recent gains, the agricultural sector continues to face deep-rooted structural constraints. Insecurity remains the most severe challenge, with insurgency, banditry, kidnappings, and communal conflicts disrupting farming activities, deterring investment, and restricting access to arable land. The recent uptick in security incidents suggests that improvements in output could be short-lived without decisive intervention. Weak market infrastructure including inadequate storage facilities and poor rural transport networks contributes to high post-harvest losses and limits market access. Meanwhile, persistently high input and operating costs have eroded farmers’ purchasing power and hindered the adoption of modern technologies.

Sustaining and accelerating growth in Nigeria’s agricultural sector will require coordinated and long-term policy actions. Key priorities include expanding access to affordable finance for farmers and agribusinesses, and scaling investment in critical infrastructure such as storage systems, rural roads, and logistics networks. Policy consistency and stronger institutional capacity are essential to improve the effectiveness of reforms and boost investor confidence.

Additionally, expanding agricultural education and extension services will support wider adoption of modern, efficient farming practices. Greater emphasis on climate-resilient agriculture particularly irrigation development and drought-tolerant seed varieties will help mitigate weather-related risks. Above
all, addressing insecurity across key agricultural zones remains fundamental to restoring stability and safeguarding production.

Click here to download full report: ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​CSL Nigeria Daily – 03 December 2025 – Agric sector.pdf​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​