December 3, 2025/CSL Report

• The Nigerian economy grew by 4.0% year-on-year (y/y) in Q3 2025, slightly below the 4.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter, but outperforming market expectation of 3.8%.
• Performance was primarily driven by the non-oil sector, especially agriculture and services sector, which expanded by 3.8% y/y and 4.2% y/y respectively in Q3, higher than the 2.8% y/y and 3.9% y/y growth recorded in Q2.
• We now expect full year 2025 growth to reach 3.9%, an improvement from the 3.4% recorded in 2024.

The Nigerian economy advanced by 4.0% y/y in Q3, underpinned by resilient non-oil sector. Recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that the Nigerian economy expanded by 4.0% y/y in Q3 2025, exceeding both our forecast of 3.8% and the broader market consensus (Bloomberg: 3.8%). Although the outturn represents a modest slowdown from the 4.2% y/y growth recorded in Q2 2025, it nonetheless underscores the resilience of the non-oil sector amid ongoing interventions to improve macroeconomic conditions.

We highlight that the agriculture and services sector were the key drivers of performance, expanding by 3.8% y/y and 4.2% y/y respectively in Q3, higher than the 2.8% y/y and 3.9% y/y growth recorded in Q2. We note that the improvement in both sectors were crucial in boosting non-oil sector growth to 3.9% y/y in Q3, up from 3.6% y/y in the previous quarter. While oil sector growth remained positive, performance moderated significantly, easing to 5.8% y/y from the exceptionally high 20.5% y/y recorded in Q2 2025.

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​​​​​​​CSL Macro Report – Q3 2025 GDP.pdf​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​