The Nigerian economy continues to see overall moderation in general prices levels following the release of November inflation report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed further decline in headline inflation. According to the report, annual headline inflation stood at 14.45% in November, representing a 160bps contraction from what was recorded in the previous month. We highlight that this consistent disinflationary trend essentially reflects the favorable base effect, steady foreign exchange rates and stable energy prices.

However, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation saw a modest increase from 0.93% in October to 1.22% in the month under review, reflecting slight cost pressures amid festive-spending over the one-month period. Meanwhile, in line with recent patterns, the decrease in headline inflation was triggered mostly by the food index while core inflation also contributed. 

Going forward, our outlook is tilted towards a sustained disinflationary trend in December, driven by sustained food supply, stable exchange rates and energy prices. However, we expect upward pressure on the month-on-month headline inflation due to festive demand for mainly food items, which should also cut across other household items. Nevertheless, we envisage a slightly lower headline inflation figure for December 2025, compared to what was recorded in November.

Kindly find HERE, the full report, covering our analysis and considerations.