December 16, 2025/Cordros Report

Based on the CPI and inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s headline inflation fell for the eighth consecutive month. Specifically, headline inflation eased by 160bps to 14.45% y/y in November (October: 16.05% y/y) – 21bps higher than Cordros’ estimate of 14.24% y/y. Conversely, on a month-on-month basis, headline inflation rose by 29bps to 1.22% (October: 0.93% m/m).

Food inflation continued to ease, falling by 204bps to 11.08% y/y (October: 13.12% y/y) supported by relatively improved crop harvests, fewer flood-related disruptions to food supply, naira appreciation, and moderate increases in logistics costs. However, on a month-on-month basis, the food index rose after two months of deflation, increasing by 1.13%, due to higher prices for both farm produce (+0.77% m/m vs October: +0.00% m/m) and imported food (+0.60% m/m vs October: +0.35% m/m). The monthly uptick in price pressures reflects increased consumer demand associated with preemptive buying and stockpiling ahead of the December festive period.

At the same time, core inflation (all items less farm produce and energy) moderated by 65bps to 18.04% y/y (October:18.69% y/y), underpinned by naira stability and lower energy costs. Similarly, on a monthly basis, core inflation slowed by 14bps to 1.28% m/m (October: +1.42% m/m),  reflecting slower price increases across key sub-items – utilities (-233bps to 0.54% m/m), insurance and financial services (-153bps to 0.18% m/m), education services (-75bps to 0.02% m/m), furnishings and household equipment maintenance (-72bps to 0.19% m/m), information and communications (-41bps to 0.12% m/m), and clothing and footwear (-27bps to 0.10% m/m). Conversely, inflation rose in the health (+215bps to 2.71% m/m), recreation, sport and culture (+78bps to 1.58% m/m), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+77bps to 1.08% m/m) subcomponents.

CPI Rebasing May Skew December Inflation Print 

Inflationary pressures are expected to remain tepid in December, particularly compared to the previous year. For food, the main harvest typically peaks in December, but improved supplies and a possible extension of the harvest due to continued rainfall should help contain price pressures. The exchange rate has remained relatively stable (December average so far: NGN1,450.60/USD vs December 2024: NGN1,564.67/USD), appreciating 7.3% y/y, which supports lower price increases for imported food. For core items, reduced energy price pressures and the stronger naira are expected to limit upward pressure on core prices, keeping overall inflation broadly in check.

Nonetheless, a spike in the December 2025 inflation reading is possible due to the December 2024 CPI rebasing, which introduced a discontinuity in the series. The artificially low base could mechanically lift the year-on-year reading, giving the appearance of a renewed uptick in price pressures, even though underlying momentum is expected to remain subdued. Overall, we estimate inflation to average 21.9% y/y in 2025E. 

Figure 1: Headline Inflation – Historical (y/y)