December 23, 2025/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
Russia Muscles Into China’s LNG Market as Australia Loses Ground
– Russia has become the second-largest LNG supplier to China, doubling its deliveries of super-chilled gas year-over-year in November to 1.6 million metric tonnes, according to Chinese customs data.
– China’s weak demand for LNG has been one of the most consistent downtrends this year, with 2025 arrivals totalling only 66 million tonnes, down 16% from a year ago when imports tallied up to 78 million tonnes.
– Most of the incremental Russian LNG supply came from Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 plant and customs data indicate they were about 10% below the average import price of $9.85 per MMBtu.
– Whilst Qatari LNG deals are oil-linked, Chinese buyers have kept these term volumes coming; however, higher Russian buying came at the expense of Australia, historically the largest exporter of LNG to China.
– China hasn’t imported US LNG since Trump came into office and signalled the first round of import tariffs in February, having bought 4.3 million tonnes in 2024.
Market Movers
– Japan’s state-controlled exploration firm Japex (TYO:1662) has agreed to buy the shale oil and gas assets of privately held Verdad Resources for $1.3 billion, adding some 35,000 boe/d of production in Wyoming and Colorado to its portfolio.
– Global trading house Glencore (LON:GLEN) has agreed to buy a majority stake in the Dutch sustainable fuels company FincoEnergies, boosting its standing in renewable fuels and carbon credit insetting.
– UK’s largest oil producer Harbour Energy (LON:HBR) is diversifying away from the North Sea by agreeing to buy US deepwater specialist LLOG Exploration for $3.2 billion in a cash-and-stock deal, sending its stock down by 2% on Monday.
– Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC plans to launch the sale of several oil blocks in early 2026, offering 35% of its stakes in at least 8 joint ventures with Seplat and Oando to generate additional revenue.
Tuesday, December 23, 2025
In pre-Christmas trading sessions, oil market participants have overwhelmingly become Venezuela watchers, predicting inevitable supply disruptions or calling Trump’s escalatory moves mere negotiation tactics depending on which side of the bullish/bearish fence they’re on. The suffocation of Venezuelan oil exports has pushed ICE Brent futures above $62 per barrel, further bolstered by an evident lack of diplomatic breakthroughs in Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Suez Canal Turns Navigable Again. Two container ships from CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest shipping line, have transited the Suez Canal in recent days, indicating that the more than two-year-long supply disruptions caused by the Israel-Gaza conflict might soon be over, easing freight costs.
US Ratchets Up Pressure Against Caracas. The US Coast Guard has tried to intercept two Venezuela-bound tankers over the weekend – one sanctioned ship sailing empty to the port of Jose (Bella 1), the other unsanctioned and sailing towards China (Centuries) – raising heavy crude supply risks.
Copper Prices Spiral Out of Control. Copper prices jumped to a new all-time high, with the 3-month LME contract hitting 11,996 in intraday trading on Monday as Chilean miner Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) and a Chinese smelter agreed to a zero-fee processing deal for 2026, underscoring supply tightness.
Australia’s Domestic Use Rule to Stymie LNG. Australia, the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, has unveiled a new scheme that would force gas producers to allocate between 15% and 25% of their output for domestic use from 2027, as most regions in the east are faced with gas shortages.
Indonesia Eyes End to Fuel Imports. Indonesia’s Subianto government stated that it plans to gradually stop fuel imports within the next four years – currently importing around 550,000 b/d of refined products – thanks to refining capacity expansions and higher palm oil blending mandates.
Shale Is Running Out of Steam. According to an anticipated survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, US shale firms plan to keep capital spending flat to slightly lower in 2026, amidst worsening drilling economics as most small producers (output below 10,000 b/d) have already started cutting costs.
Russia Boosts Pipeline Gas Flows to China. Pipeline gas exports of Russia’s Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) to China are expected to have increased by 25% in 2025, hitting 38.7 billion cubic metres and exceeding the nameplate capacity of Power of Siberia-1, with another 6 bcm of growth expected in 2026.
Japan to Restart Giant Nuclear Plant. Japan’s Niigata prefecture has greenlighted the restart of the world’s largest nuclear power reactor – the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant – after a 15-year hiatus caused by the 2011 Fukushima disaster, with a 1.4 GW unit expected to brought back online next year.
Trump Doubles Down on Wind Bans. The US Department of the Interior has suspended leases for 5 large-scale offshore wind projects currently under construction off the US East Coast, citing national security concerns due to the movement of huge turbine blades, impacting Ørsted or Equinor.
Gold Pulls Off a Year-End Record Rally. Gold prices jumped to an all-time high of $4,497/oz this week as US-Venezuela war tensions added a new layer of save haven sentiment to the bullion, rising by more than 70% since early January on high geopolitical risks and interest rate cut bets for 2026.
Iraq Demands Full Control Over Kurdish Flows. Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO has reiterated its call for all oil companies active in Iraqi Kurdistan to provide their output for export after Norway’s DNO stated it prefers to sell its crude directly to Kurdish refiners, avoiding SOMO’s $16 per barrel price.
Cheap Russian Oil Prompts Teapot Buying Boom. Chinese independent refiners in Shandong region have resumed purchases of Russia’s Far Eastern ESPO Blend, currently trading as cheap as -$7 per barrel to ICE Brent, as Western sanctions pushed its differentials to the lowest on record.
Bolivia Ends Fuel Subsidies, Triggering Protests. Bolivia’s recently elected president Rodrigo Paz ended fuel subsidies as part of his reform package to curb inflation that reached 21% in November, sending gasoline prices up by 90% and doubling diesel prices amidst widespread popular protests.
