January 2, 2026/CSL Update
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has released its November 2025 oil production report. Total oil production averaged 1.6mbpd in November, comprising 1.44mbpd of crude oil and 163,049bpd of condensates, representing a 6% year-on-year decline from 1.7mbpd recorded in November 2024.
The y/y weakness was driven largely by a sharp contraction in condensate production, which fell 25% y/y to 163,049bpd from 218,545bpd a year earlier. On a month-on-month basis, production trends were mixed. Condensate output declined by 17% m/m, down from 196,028bpd in October, while crude oil production increased modestly by 3% m/m to 1.44mbpd from 1.40mbpd in the previous month, signalling some operational improvement. Despite this gain, crude production remained below Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota of 1.5mbpd, a threshold the country has met or exceeded only three times in 2025, underscoring persistent challenges to achieving sustained production recovery.
At the terminal level, production performance was mixed across Nigeria’s major export points in November. The Forcados terminal remained the largest contributor, producing 9.1 million barrels, although this was slightly lower than the 9.4 million barrels recorded in October. The Bonny terminal followed, with output rising to 8.2 million barrels from 7.9 million barrels in October, reflecting improved throughput during the month. Production at the Escravos terminal eased to 4.1 million barrels, down from 4.4 million barrels in October, while Qua Iboe recorded a notable rebound, with output increasing to 4.0 million barrels from 2.7 million barrels in the previous month. Overall, the data point to uneven terminal utilisation, with gains at Bonny and Qua Iboe partly offsetting softer performance at Forcados and Escravos.
Overall, Nigeria’s November 2025 oil production data underscore a fragile recovery in crude oil output that remains constrained by structural and operational challenges. While the month-on-month increase in crude production points to incremental improvements in field performance and terminal utilisation, the sharp contraction in condensate output continues to weigh on headline production levels. With total output still below Nigeria’s OPEC+ quota and underperforming year-ago levels, the outlook for oil-driven fiscal revenues remains cautious. Sustained gains will likely depend on improved security around oil infrastructure, reduced losses from theft and vandalism, and continued regulatory and operational reforms to stabilise production and restore investor confidence in the upstream sector.
Click here to download full report: CSL Nigeria Daily – 2 January 2026- Crude oil.pdf
