January 6, 2026/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.
Trump’s Venezuela Shock Jolts Energy Markets Awake
– Trump’s ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has breathed new life into stale oil markets, particularly for US equities that are believed to benefit from cheap Venezuelan crude.
– Even though less than a week has passed so far in 2026, shares of US oil major Chevron are already up 8% since the beginning of the year, with refiner Valero Energy posting an even more impressive 11% jump.
– US President Trump has also stated that the government could subsidize energy companies that ‘will help rebuild Venezuela’, pledging to have US firms in Venezuela ‘up and running’ in less than 18 months.
– According to media reports, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is expected to meet top executives from US oil companies later this week after it transpired that neither ExxonMobil nor Chevron were consulted before the military capture of Maduro.
– The S&P 500 Energy index has risen by 5% in 2025 to date, compared to a 0.4% increase in the wider S&P 500.
Market Movers
– Colombia’s state energy firm Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) has assumed 100% interest and operatorship of all offshore blocks in Colombia’s maritime zone, following Shell’s (LON:SHEL) relinquishing of three offshore gas projects.
– Italy’s energy major ENI (BIT:ENI) has spun off its refining business, encompassing plants in Sannazzaro, Taranto, Milazzo and Livorno, into a new unit called Eni Industrial Evolution, continuing with its ‘satellite’ strategy.
– US utility firm Vistra (NYSE:VST) has agreed to buy Cogentrix Energy for approximately $4.7 billion, boosting its portfolio by 10 natural gas-fired power plants across PJM, ISO and ERCOT, with the transaction expected to close by late 2026.
– French energy giant TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has formed a new joint venture in Nigeria with Chevron (NYSE:CVX), farming out a 40% stake in the PPL 2000 and PPL 2001 exploration licences.
Tuesday, January 6, 2025
Even though US President Trump’s kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro has failed to trigger a notable upward movement in oil prices, ICE Brent has little by little recouped some of December’s losses and is now already trading above $62 per barrel. Whilst the White House tries to entice US majors to return to Venezuela, embargo-driven supply disruptions are much more likely over the upcoming weeks than production increases.
OPEC+ Hits Snooze Button on Unwinding Plans. OPEC+ members confirmed their previous decision to keep production quotas flat in Q1 2026, citing market stability concerns and a seasonally weaker demand outlook, leaving 1.24 million b/d of COVID-era output cuts still unwound.
US Oil Majors Brush Off Trump Pressure. Chief executives of US oil majors ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM), ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) or Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have all declared that they were not consulted about a potential return to Venezuela, ‘before and after’ President Maduro’s capture on January 3.
Venezuela Starts Cutting Oil Production. Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA has started to shut in wells as the US fleet tightens the noose around oil exports, asking joint venture partners to disconnect up to 10 wells per project, impacting CNPC’s Petrosinovensa and Chevron’s Petroboscan.
A Buyer Is Found for UK’s Bankrupted Refinery. US refining major Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) has agreed to purchase the assets and infrastructure of the Lindsey oil refinery in northern England, shuttered after last year’s bankruptcy of its owner Prax, vowing to integrate its facilities into its Humber plant.
Trump Warns India of Higher Tariffs on Russian Imports. US President Trump warned India’s authorities that the White House could raise import tariffs on India – already at a punitive rate of 50% – if New Delhi doesn’t meet its demands of curbing purchases of Russian crude oil.
India’s Largest Refiner Flags Strategy Shift. India’s largest refiner, Reliance Industries, has stated that it is not expecting any Russian crude deliveries in January, potentially sending the South Asian country’s imports of Russian oil closer to 1 million b/d after a 1.2 million b/d average last month.
Norway’s Oil Giant Takes US to Court. Norway’s energy giant Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) announced it had filed a civil suit in a US District Court, challenging the US Department of the Interior’s decision to suspend $5 billion Empire Wind project, demanding a temporary injunction to allow construction.
Saudi Arabia Continues Slashing Asian Prices. Saudi Arabia’s state oil firm Saudi Aramco has lowered its formula prices for February-loading cargoes to Asia by 20-30 cents per barrel, with its benchmark Arab Light grade selling for a mere $0.30/barrel premium over the Oman/Dubai average.
Copper Shoots Up on Supply Disruptions. Copper prices surged to a new all-time high after media broke the story of Capstone Copper’s (TSO:CS) Mantoverde mine in northern Chile halting production due to industrial action, sending the three-month LME contract to $13,370/mt.
Indonesia’s Oil Output Drops After Fire. According to Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy, crude oil production in the country has fallen by 16-17% to around 500,000 b/d, down by some 90,000 b/d after a gas pipeline explosion at the Rokan block, impacting power generation at upstream sites.
Record Fine Slapped on Offshore Pipeline Operator. US authorities have slapped a record $9.6 million penalty on Third Coast, the owner of an oil gathering pipeline (MPOG) off the coast of Louisiana, after a November 2023 incident released 27,000 barrels of crude into the Gulf of Mexico.
Washington Doubles Down on Enrichment Capacity. The US Energy Department has awarded contracts totalling $2.7 billion to three companies with the aim of boosting uranium enrichment over the next 10 years, as Russia remains the only country capable of making high-assay uranium.
Chinese Brands Outsell Tesla in Europe. China’s leading EV carmaker BYD (SHE:002594) outsold Tesla last year in Europe’s two largest electric vehicle markets – Germany and the United Kingdom – posting an eye-opening 706% and 485% annual growth rate for the two respective countries.
