January 12, 2026/United Capital Report
Bottomline: United Capital Research forecasts that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate will decline further to 15.48% in November 2025 from 16.05% in October 2025. The expected moderation is driven by a slight reduction in the prices of selected food items and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Although the average exchange rate appreciated in November compared with October, the value of Naira depreciated when assessed using month-on-month closing values. These exchange-rate dynamics influenced the prices of some food commodities.
Food Price Movements Were Mixed in November:
The average prices of food items were mixed in November 2025 compared with October 2025. Some food items recorded price declines, a few experienced marginal increases, while others remained stable. This assessment is based on United Capital Research’s survey of selected food items during the month. Specifically, the prices of Garri, Local Rice, and Maize declined by 0.38%, 27.6%, and 21.72% respectively. Conversely, the price of imported rice rose by 2.4%, while the prices of Beans, Sorghum, and Yam remained broadly stable within the same range.
Crude Oil and PMS Prices Declined Marginally:
The average price of Bonny Light crude oil declined marginally by 1.41% to US$65.22 per barrel in November 2025, down from US$66.15 per barrel in October 2025. Similarly, retail pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) across major filling stations monitored in November 2025 fell from ₦922 per litre at the end of October to ₦910 per litre in the first week of November. The average retail price moderated further to around ₦900 per litre by month-end, following price reductions by Dangote Refinery. This decline in PMS prices helped ease inflationary pressures on sensitive sectors, particularly transportation, hospitality, and food services, during the month.
Exchange Rate Dynamics Influenced Some Food Prices:
Although the Naira depreciated against the US Dollar by 1.84% on a month-on-month basis, it appreciated by 1.07% when measured using the monthly average between October and November 2025. The exchange rate, which closed at US$1/₦1,421.73 in October, ended November at US$1/₦1,448.44. Meanwhile, the average exchange rate moderated from US$1/₦1,459.54 in October to US$1/₦1,444.07 in November 2025. This monthly average appreciation of the Naira against the US Dollar had a positive pass-through effect on the local prices of some imported items.
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