January 23, 2026/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
Kazakhstan’s meaningful supply outage, combined with an increased naval presence off Iran continues to prop up oil prices.
Friday, January 23, 2026
Kazakhstan’s incessant supply disruptions have been the main talking point this week, however up until Friday there’s been little impact on pricing. No sooner had US President Trump declared the reallocation of naval assets to Iranian shores, warning of an ‘armada’ ready to attack, than ICE Brent futures were storming $66 per barrel again. Thanks to the US President, crude oil prices have not seen any weekly drops so far in 2026, only gains.
IEA Lifts Its 2026 Demand Growth Forecast. Citing a slightly weaker oversupply outlook for 2026 and a ‘normalization of global economic conditions’, the International Energy Agency has hiked its oil demand growth outlook for this year to 930,000 b/d, up 70,000 b/d from its December 2025 monthly report.
Reliance Is Back at It Again. India’s largest private refiner Reliance Industries (NSE:RELIANCE) will resume importing ‘sanctions-compliant’ Russian oil next month after a one-month pause in purchases, with its 2025 imports of Russian barrels averaging 540,000 b/d, the highest annual rate on record.
Trump Allows Venezuelan Flows to China. According to media reports, the White House has greenlighted sales of Venezuelan oil to China but not at ‘unfair, undercut prices’ that Beijing enjoyed previously, with differentials of the heavy sour Merey grade tightening to a -$5/barrel discount to Brent.
France Arrests Russian Oil Tanker. The French navy intercepted a shadow fleet tanker carrying Russian oil in the Mediterranean, claiming the seizure of the Grinch Suezmax tanker (sailing under a Comoros flag) was conducted in full compliance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Ecuador’s Row with Colombia Escalates. Colombia announced it would halt all electricity sales to neighbouring Ecuador after Quito imposed a 30% tariff on all imports from Colombia, with Ecuador’s President Noboa claiming that Bogota lacks commitment to fight drug cartels and guerillas.
Gold Has Never Been This Close to $5,000. As US government data on consumer spending showed a robust spending picture in October-November 2025, buttressing expectations of two quarter-percentage point rate cuts in 2026, gold prices edged higher to a new record of $4,900 per ounce.
Japan Cannot Get Its Nuclear Mojo Back. Japan’s leading power producer Tokyo Electric Power (TYO:9501) was forced to shut down the No.6 reactor of the giant Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant merely a day after it restarted it following a 14-year hiatus, citing a control rod malfunction.
Tengiz Woes Trigger Kazakh Investigation. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry announced it had established a special commission to investigate the causes of a fire incident at the supergiant Tengiz oil field, as the subsequent power outage prompted a full halt to the field’s production until the end of January.
China Restarts Refinery to Benefit from Cheap Oil. Discounted Russian oil barrels have reportedly prompted Chinese state-controlled giant PetroChina to restart its shuttered Dalian Petrochemical refinery in northeast China, boasting a capacity of 200,000 b/d, and maximize imports of ESPO.
Venture Global Wins CS Arbitration Again. US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) won its arbitration case against Spanish oil major Repsol (BME:REP) over supply delays from its Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal in Louisiana, the second time it prevailed in court after a 2025 arbitration loss to BP.
Indonesia Eyes 2027 End to Fuel Imports. Indonesia’s Energy Minister reiterated Jakarta’s target of halting imports of gasoline and jet fuel by the end of 2027, having imported an average of 565,000 b/d of refined products last year on insufficient domestic downstream coverage.
Argentina’s Shale Isn’t Appealing for All. London-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) is reportedly considering the sale of its Vaca Muerta shale assets in Argentina, worth several billion dollars and wielding a relatively low breakeven of $50 per barrel, due to transportation bottlenecks and rising costs.
China Expands into LNG Futures Trading. Beijing is preparing to start trading domestic-listed, yuan-denominated liquefied natural gas futures contracts potentially as early as next month, seeing the listing at the Shanghai Futures Exchange as a means of expanding China’s clout in LNG trading.
