January 30, 2026/Oilprice.com
Tom Kool
Editor, Oilprice.com
Markets looked past rising supply as shifting U.S. rhetoric on Iran and ongoing weather-related disruptions kept risk premiums elevated.
Friday, January 30, 2026
Trump’s erratic rhetoric has been greatly supportive of oil prices this week, first promising ‘speed and violence’ to Iran, only to talk about dialogue the next day. The gradual return of Kazakhstan’s shut-in production was not an impediment to see ICE Brent end the week above $70 per barrel, with the bullish sentiment also bolstered by US supply still bearing the impact of Winter Storm Fern as some 500,000 b/d of production is still yet to be brought back.
Trump Lifts Bulk of Venezuela Oil Sanctions. The Trump administration lifted most of sanctions vis-à-vis Venezuela’s oil industry and exports this week, issuing General License 46 just hours after the Venezuelan Parliament approved a new hydrocarbons law that ended PDVSA’s monopolistic powers.
Reliance Boosts Russian Crude Imports. Faced with weak European demand for its refined products even after halting Russian crude imports completely mid-December India’s Largest private refiner Reliance will resume imports of Russian Urals, with inflows expected to be up to 150,000 b/d.
Mozambique LNG Is Formally Back on Track. Ending months of speculation about an impending restart, the TotalEnergies-led (NYSE:TTE) 13 mtpa Mozambique LNG project was formally resumed after a four-year pause caused by Islamic State attacks, eyeing a potential launch of the $25 billion project in 2030.
Carlyle Agress on $22 billion Lukoil Deal. US private equity firm Carlyle Group has agreed to buy most of Lukoil’s international assets, with the $22 billion transaction excluding Kazakh assets where the government would pre-empt the deal, however the deal is still subject to US Treasury approval.
Mexico’s Downstream Hope Disappoints Again. Mexico’s most modern refinery, the 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas plant run by state oil firm Pemex, was forced to halt operations this week due to a power failure, with media reports suggesting a technical issue at its catalytic converter after a pressure drop.
Tungsten Heats Up Beyond Recognition. Tightening tungsten inventories have propelled the industrial metal to its highest pricing levels on record, with ammonium paratungstate trading as high as $1,150 per metric tonne in China, driven up by Belling’s export controls and soaring defence industry demand.
Indian Refiners Courts Brazilian Oil Suppliers. Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) signed three term supply agreements totalling some 60 million barrels with Indian refiners as part of a burgeoning India-Brazil trade relationship, having imported only 85,000 b/d of crude in 2025.
White House Rescinds Plans on Key Minerals Price Floors. The Trump administration is reportedly reconsidering its plans to guarantee minimum price floors for critical mineral projects developed in the US, a tacit acknowledgement of a lack of congressional funding, sending miners’ shares down by 5-7%.
Kuwait Seeks Billions for Its Pipeline Business. Kuwait is preparing to divest part of its oil pipeline network in a deal that could potentially raise up to $7 billion, building on the recent opening of a BlackRock office in the country, followed by Saudi Aramco selling off $4 billion worth of power plants.
US Upstream M&A Activity Refuses to Dry Up. According to Enverus data, US upstream mergers and acquisitions regained momentum after slowing down earlier in the year, jumping to $23.5 billion in Q4 2025, largely driven by Mitsubishi’s $7.4 billion purchase of Aethon Energy Management’s assets.
Majors Eye Venezuela’s Gas Assets. Global energy giants Shell (LON:SHEL) and BP (NYSE:BP) applied for US licenses to extract natural gas from fields straddling the border between Venezuela and Trinidad & Tobago, eyeing new volumes for LNG exports from the Loran-Manatee and Cocuina-Manakin fields.
Russia and Ukraine Agree to Energy Strike Moratorium. US President Trump announced that he had received a commitment from Russia to suspend attacks on power plants in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and other larger cities, alongside 15 rounds of missile attacks on Ukraine’s gas production facilities.
Copper Falls as LME Glitches and Investors Take Profits. Copper prices peaked above $14,500/mt on Thursday, however, Friday’s disruptions in LME trading hours, investors’ general mood for profit-taking and Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Fed sent it back to $13,000/mt.
