February 3, 2026/United Capital Report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Global output is projected to ease slightly from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, driven by slower growth in the US and China as trade tariffs weigh on activity. Inflation in major economies is expected to trend towards central bank targets, supporting a shift towards monetary policy easing rather than tightening.
In the crude oil market, demand should strengthen modestly as global growth stabilises, while supply uncertainties persist. OPEC+ may adjust volumes for price stability, and non-OPEC output growth is expected to slow. Brent Crude Oil price is projected to hover around US$55/b in 2026 while Bonny
Lights is projected around US$57/b in 2026.
Global equity markets will be influenced by monetary easing, tech cycle resilience, and macro developments across major economies. In fixed income, slowing growth and easing inflation should anchor yields lower in advanced economies. Nigeria may attract investment inflows if FX remains stable. Key global risks include geopolitical tensions, trade wars, supply chain disruptions, and high debt burdens.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to post resilient growth of 4.1% in 2026, supported by easing inflation and reform momentum. The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) region should maintain strong growth at 5.6%, with contained inflation and opportunities for long-term capital mobilisation to finance infrastructure. This environment favours retail investment products such as Collective Investment
Schemes (CIS).
United Capital Research projects Nigeria’s GDP growth at 5.45%, driven by manufacturing, real estate, agriculture, ICT, and energy sectors. Increased investment in oil and gas and expanded refining capacity
will boost domestic value creation and job growth.
Inflation is forecast to decline from 20% in January to single digits by December, averaging 12.36%, aided by lower food and energy prices, FX stability, and VAT removal on select items. Monetary policy is expected to ease, with MPR at 25%, CRR at 40%, and an average exchange rate of US$1/₦1,412, ending near US$/1₦1,321.
The NGX All-Share Index is projected to gain 31%, supported by price appreciation of currently listed stocks. Furthermore, there are strong indications that major companies such as Dangote Fertilizer Limited, NNPC Limited, and leading fintech firms will list their shares on the NGX floors. Lower yields will encourage equities, ETFs, REITs, and bond issuance, keeping Nigerian fixed-income instruments attractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
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