February 9, 2026/InvestmentOne Report
Executive Summary
Our 2026 outlook is characterised by policy credibility, earnings quality, and balance-sheet strength. Global growth is slow but not collapsing, with outcomes increasingly shaped by interest rate sensitivity and geopolitical risk rather than broad cyclical momentum.
In the United States, economic growth is expected to moderate as restrictive monetary conditions continue to weigh on credit creation, housing, and capital investment. While labour markets remain relatively resilient, this strength is lagging rather than leading. Inflation has eased but remains sufficiently sticky to limit aggressive policy easing, keeping financial conditions tight for longer. US equities enter 2026 with elevated valuations, but large CAPEX spendings, a potentially more expansionary policy environment, and earnings delivery makes the case for selective exposure to companies with strong cash flow generation, and balance-sheet resilience.
Crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound, as moderating global demand growth and rising non-OPEC supply offset geopolitical risk premiums. While episodic price spikes remain possible, the absence of a strong structural net demand limits sustained upside.
Nigeria’s outlook sits at the intersection of these global dynamics. Real GDP growth is expected at c. 4.33% in 2026, supported by services activity, gradual improvement in oil production, and reform-driven efficiency gains. However, elevated inflation, weak real incomes, and tight domestic financial conditions continue to constrain growth. Recent policy reforms have improved long-term macro credibility but impose short-term adjustment costs.
On the currency, the Naira is expected to remain volatile but more anchored than in prior years due to a more transparent FX framework and improving external balances. For 2026, the Naira is projected to trade within a NGN1,330 – NGN1,430 per USD range, with risks tilted toward episodic pressure rather than disorderly depreciation, conditional on reform continuity and stable oil receipts.
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