February 9, 2026/United Capital Update

Global Markets:

United States

In the United States, labour market conditions show signs of softening, with job openings falling from 7.1 million in November 2025 to 6.5 million in December 2025, the lowest level since 2020. This was reinforced by a rise in initial unemployment claims to 231,000 in January 2026. Markets are also closely watching the policy implications of President Trump’s nomination of Mr Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Euro Area

The economy expanded by 0.3% in Q4 2025, slightly above expectations, while annual inflation fell to 1.7% in January 2026, slipping below the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) 2% target. Against this backdrop, the ECB kept its main policy rate unchanged at 2% at its 5 February 2026 meeting, reflecting confidence in the region’s underlying economic resilience.

Asia

Across Asia, conditions were mixed but generally stable. In China, consumer inflation edged up to 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, while producer price deflation eased, suggesting improving underlying demand. In Japan, markets expect the Bank of Japan to maintain its short-term policy rate at around 0.75%, as policymakers assess the impact of previous tightening on growth and credit conditions.

Oil Markets

Oil prices edged lower over the period, with Brent crude and Bonny Light to settle at $67.60 and $71.25 respectively. This reflects softer demand expectations and cautious global growth outlooks, as highlighted by recent assessments from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA). Despite the short-term weakness, prices remain strong on a year-to-date basis at $71.25, supported by OPEC+ supply management and ongoing geopolitical risks, which continue to underpin the medium-term oil market outlook.

Outlook:

Global markets are expected to remain cautious and data-driven this week, with investor sentiment shaped by upcoming US labour and inflation data and signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. In Europe, we expect easing inflation to offer some support to economic growth. In Asia, sentiment is likely to stay mixed as China shows tentative demand improvement and Japan maintains a cautious monetary stance. Oil prices may trade sideways to slightly weaker amid demand concerns despite OPEC+ supply discipline, while gold is likely to stay supported by ongoing uncertainty, keeping overall market positioning defensive and selective. 

Domestic Economy:

Nigeria’s economic activity remained resilient at the start of 2026. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI rose to 55.7 points in January, marking the 14 consecutive month of expansion, with broad based growth across industry, services and agriculture.

Equity Market:

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) rose by 3.84% week on week (W/W), closing at 171,727.48 points. Market capitalisation stood at ₦110.23tn and year to date return stood at 10.36%. Oil/Gas sector recorded the best gain during the week while Consumer Goods sector recorded the worst performance.

Fixed Income and Money Market:

The fixed-income market was mixed this week, with money-market rates falling sharply as liquidity conditions improved. The Open Repo Rate and Overnight Rate declined to 22.50% and 22.83%, showing lower short-term funding pressure. Treasury bill yields were largely stable, reflecting cautious investor demand. In the bond market, activity was muted, with yields on the 3-year bond falling, while the 5, 7 and 10-year bonds closed mostly unchanged, indicating that investors remained selective in a high-interest-rate environment.

Outlook:

Equity Market

The equity market is expected to remain positive but selective, with continued interest in Oil & Gas, Industrial stocks, ICT, Banking and Breweries, while weaker sentiment may persist in Consumer Goods and Insurance. Profit-taking after recent gains could moderate upside momentum.

Fixed Income Market

Fixed-income conditions are likely to stay mixed, with money-market rates relatively soft and Treasury bill yields broadly stable. Bond market activity should remain muted, with investors favouring short- to mid-tenor securities in the high-rate environment.