February 16, 2026/United Capital Report

Global Markets:

United States

In the United States (US), consumer sentiment index edged up to 57.3 points from 56.4 points, suggesting a slight improvement in household confidence. Meanwhile investors continue to watch the survey’s inflation expectations for clues on future pricing pressures and rate direction. Meanwhile, January CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year, with shelter still a key driver and energy easing, reinforcing the view that inflation is moderating but not yet fully subdued.

Euro Area

In the Euro Area, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, while employment increased 0.2%, pointing to resilience in activity and the labour market.

Asia

In Asia, China’s inflation rose by 0.2% year-on-year, reflecting softer energy effects and base dynamics. This reinforces expectations of a cautious policy backdrop and keeps attention on whether demand strengthens enough to improve pricing power and corporate margins.

Oil Markets

Oil prices remain under modest pressure as sentiment softens on updated supply-demand expectations. The International Energy Agency recently signalled slower global demand growth and the potential for a supply surplus, reinforcing concerns about balance in 2026. At the same time, OPEC+ continues to manage output carefully, providing a degree of underlying support. According to Reuters, traders are now closely watching inventory data and macroeconomic signals, leaving the market finely balanced between surplus fears and ongoing geopolitical risk

Outlook:

Global markets are expected to remain mixed, with emerging markets sustaining relative strength on improved liquidity and attractive valuations. Developed markets face data-driven volatility amid gradual monetary policy normalisation. In the US, moderating inflation supports a cautious easing bias, though sticky price components may delay aggressive rate cuts. Europe’s modest growth signals resilience but limited momentum, and China’s soft inflation suggests targeted rather than broad stimulus. Overall, market direction will hinge on inflation trends, central bank guidance and commodity price stability. 

Domestic Economy:

Nigeria’s economic activity remained resilient at the start of 2026. The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI rose to 55.7 points in January, marking the 14 consecutive month of expansion, with broad based growth across industry, services and agriculture.

Equity Market:

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) rose by 6.16% week on week (W/W), closing at 182,313.08 points. Market capitalisation stood at ₦117.03tn and year to date return stood at 17.16%. Oil/Gas sector recorded the best gain during the week while Insurance sector recorded the least performance.

Fixed Income and Money Market:

The fixed-income market was broadly bullish during the week, with yields declining across most instruments as liquidity conditions remained supportive. Money-market rates eased slightly, with the Overnight rate moderating while the Open Repo Rate held steady, indicating stable short-term funding conditions. Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) yields declined across the 90-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors, reflecting improved demand and easing rate expectations. In the bond market, yields compressed across the curve, particularly at the long end, suggesting renewed investor interest in duration amid expectations of a more stable interest rate environment.

Outlook:

Equity Market

The Nigerian equity market is likely to maintain positive momentum in the near term, supported by strong year-to-date returns, sustained domestic liquidity and improving macro indicators such as the PMI. Sector rotation may persist, with investors favouring fundamentally strong and earnings-resilient names, particularly in Oil & Gas and banking. However, gains could moderate as valuations rise, making performance increasingly selective and driven by corporate results and policy signals.

Fixed Income Market

The fixed-income market may remain firm in the short term as improving liquidity and declining yields support demand across bills and bonds. With rate expectations stabilising and duration appetite gradually returning, investors are likely to stay active, although movements will remain sensitive to liquidity conditions and monetary policy guidance.