February 18, 2026/Coronation Update

Summary

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) latest capital importation report for Q3 2025 indicates a marked improvement in foreign capital inflows into Nigeria, with total importation rising to US6.01 bn, the highest level recorded in six years This represents a substantial 380.16% y/y increase and a 17.46% q/q rebound following the modest contraction recorded in Q2 2025. The strong showing was primarily driven by heightened activity in the fixed income market.

Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) remained the dominant component of capital inflows, accounting for 80.70% of total importation during the review period. Portfolio inflows surged 439.74% y/y to US$4.85bn, a 15.57% q/q increase, supported by broad-based gains across both equity and bond markets. The sustained attractiveness of Nigerian financial assets was underpinned by positive real yields, moderating inflation expectations, and relative currency stability.

Within the portfolio segment, money market instruments continued to account for the largest share (60.78%), although inflows declined 17.71% q/q as investors rebalanced toward longer-duration instruments. This shift reflects expectations of an eventual monetary policy easing cycle, prompting investors to lock in elevated yields in FGN bonds and selectively position in equities. Consequently, bond inflows rose significantly, with their contribution to total portfolio investments increasing to 32.46% (from 11.18% in Q2 2025), reaching approximately US$1.58bn , compared to just US$69.87m in the corresponding period of 2024.

Foreign participation in the equities market also strengthened notably, with inflows rising 126% q/q to US$328.10m, levels last observed in the pre-pandemic period. This improvement coincided with strong domestic market performance, as the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) recorded gains of 44.80% y/y and 18.95% q/q, thereby increasing equities’ contribution to total portfolio inflows to 6.76% (from 3.46% in Q2 2025). The equity inflow recovery signals renewed foreign investor confidence in Nigeria’s capital market, supported by banking sector profitability, FX reforms, and improved earnings outlook.

Foreign portfolio investments in the local equities market improved strongly by 126% q/q to US$328.10m this was last seen in pre-COVID era, this signal renewed foreign investors’ confidence in the Nigerian capital market. Data from NGX shows that NGX All Share Index (ASI) posted a growth of 44.80% y/y and 18.95% q/q, translating to increased contribution of this asset class to of total portfolio investments. (6.76% in Q3 ‘25 vs. 3.46% in Q2 ’25).

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) also showed encouraging signs of recovery, rising to US$296.25m, representing 107.64% q/q and 185.34% y/y growth. As a result, FDI contribution to total capital importation increased to 4.93% (from 2.79% in Q2 2025), suggesting a gradual restoration of longer-term investor confidence amid ongoing structural reforms and improving macroeconomic landscape.

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