February 27, 2026/Cordros Update

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07% y/y in Q4-25, up from 3.98% y/y in Q3-25. The growth outturn is 15bps higher than Cordros’ estimate (+3.92% y/y).
 
Based on the GDP breakdown provided, the oil sector growth rose to 6.79% y/y in Q4-25 (Q3-25: +5.84% y/y). According to NBS, crude oil production averaged 1.58mb/d in Q4-25, 2.6% y/y higher than in Q4-24 (1.54mb/d). In addition, the oil sector contributed 2.87% to the total GDP (Q3-25: 3.44%) during the review period.
 
Similarly, the non-oil sector expanded further by 3.99% y/y in Q4-25 (Q3-25: +3.91% y/y), while it contributed 97.13% to the total GDP (vs 96.56% in Q3-25).

Breaking it further, Agriculture GDP grew stronger by 4.00% y/y (Q3-25: +3.79% y/y), Services GDP advanced at a steady pace by 4.15% y/y (Q3-25: +4.15% y/y), and the Industries GDP grew slightly higher by 3.88% y/y (Q3-25: +3.77% y/y).

In terms of contribution, Services, Agriculture, and Industries accounted for 55.92%, 28.66%, and 15.42% of the overall GDP, respectively.