March 5, 2026/InvestmentOne Report

Keeping in line with recent growth in the services sector, MTN delivered stellar full year numbers for 2025 as topline revenue grew to NGN5.20trn (+54.90% YoY), reflecting the highest growth seen in more than 5 years. This growth was supported by deepening in consumer base as well as the tariff increases in 2025 as prices in telecommunication services increased materially by over 50%.

In tandem with this strong topline performance, PAT showed a remarkable comeback after two consecutive losses in 2023 and 2024; these losses were largely as a result of drastic FX losses, however 2025 showed a rebound in FX volatility as the company recorded a NGN90.30bn FX gain vs NGN925.36bn loss in 2024, resulting in PAT of NGN1.11trn vs NGN400.40bn loss in FY2024. It is important to highlight that although operational performance improved materially, a significant portion of this earnings recovery was driven by FX normalisation, and as such sustainability will remain tied to currency stability. 

Based on improved operational and financial outlook, we maintain a STRONG BUY rating on MTNN. The stock trades at 14.75x PE, broadly in line with regional peers. We forecast FY2026 DPS of NGN23.00 (35.00% payout ratio) and maintain a target price of NGN1,072.40, representing a 35.75% upside.

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