According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria s headline inflation rate eased to 15.06% YoY in February 2026, primarily driven by the 184bps decline in core inflation to 15.88% YoY. However, food inflation rate reversed its downward trajectory, advancing by 323bps to 12.12% YoY and consequently slowing the overall pace of disinflation.

On a monthly basis, headline inflation rate rose sharply to 2.01% from -2.88% in January, mostly due to the acceleration in the food index (+1,070bps to 4.69%) alongside the rise in the core index (+258bps to 0.89%). Notably, the surge in food prices may be attributed to stockpiling ahead of the religious fasts observed in the month.

For March 2026, we anticipate a moderate uptick in monthly inflation, driven by seasonal demand associated with Eid and Easter festivities. Additionally, the persistent geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to pose upside risks to global oil prices, with the recent surge spillovers to domestic fuel and transportation costs, which have seen play out thus far this month.

We therefore note that this may mute the impact of the relatively stable foreign exchange environment on consumer prices in the near term. Consequently, Nigeria s disinflationary trend may temporarily pause in the near term and is likely to hover between 14.50% – 15.50% in March. 

Kindly find HERE, the full report, covering our analysis and considerations.