The domestic stock market traded on a bearish note this week, primarily driven by losses in MTNN (-5.3%), ZENITHBANK (-6.4%), FIRSTHOLDCO (-4.7%), and UBA (-2.1%). Consequently, the All-Share Index declined by 0.1% w/w to 200,913.06 points, bringing month-to-date and year-to-date returns to +4.2% and +29.1%, respectively.
March 27, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK headline inflation held steady at a ten-month low of +3.0% y/y in February (January: +3.0% y/y), in line with market expectations. The stable outturn reflected a deceleration in both food and services inflation, which was offset by a slight uptick in core inflation. Specifically, food inflation eased to 3.3% y/y (December: 3.6% y/y), driven by softer prices across categories such as olive oil, flour and pizza. Similarly, services inflation edged lower to 4.3% y/y (January: 4.4% y/y), as declines in gas prices helped offset increases in housing related costs. In contrast, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose marginally to 3.2% y/y (January: +3.1% y/y), suggesting persistent underlying price pressures. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rebounded to 0.4% (January: -0.5%), following the sharp contraction recorded in the prior month. We expect UK inflation to edge higher in the near term, driven by elevated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to exert upward pressure on gas and fertiliser prices, with passthrough effects on both energy and food costs. While the Bank of England anticipates a gradual return to its 2.0% target over the medium term, these near term pressures could delay the pace of disinflation. Against this backdrop, we expect the Bank to keep policy rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting, while retaining a data dependent stance.
According to the latest data from S&P Global, the United States Composite PMI eased to an 11-month low of 51.40 points in March (February: 51.90 points), reflecting a slowdown in overall business activity. The moderation was primarily driven by weaker momentum in the services sector, despite a pickup in manufacturing activity. Specifically, the services PMI declined to 51.10 points (February: 51.70 points), as economic sentiment softened amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In contrast, manufacturing activity strengthened, with the PMI rising to 52.40 points (February: 51.60 points), supported by higher output and new order alongside improved factory operating conditions. Elsewhere, employment edged lower for the first time since February 2025, reflecting a cautious hiring stance amid elevated labour costs and softer demand conditions. At the same time, inflationary pressures remained firm, with both input and output prices increasing, largely driven by higher energy costs linked to the ongoing US–Iran conflict. Looking ahead, we expect business activity in the US to remain in expansionary territory, supported by easing concerns around the adverse impact of tariffs and improving expectations for domestic demand for goods produced in the US. Nonetheless, heightened uncertainty stemming from ongoing Middle East tensions could temper momentum in the near term.
Global Market
Global equities traded choppily this week as investors assessed mixed signals around potential de-escalation in the Middle East, following Donald Trump’s decision to grant a 10-day extension on potential US strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure. While the move signalled scope for diplomacy, conflicting developments—including Tehran’s rejection of a 15-point US proposal and reports of additional troops deployment—kept uncertainty elevated. At the time of writing, US markets (DJIA: +0.8%; S&P 500: -0.5%; NASDAQ 100: -1.1%) were mostly set to close lower, pressured by rising Treasury yields, elevated energy prices, and persistent geopolitical risks, which reinforced stagflation concerns and weighed on tech stocks. European equities (STOXX Europe: +1.2%; FTSE 100: +0.8%) advanced, supported by commodity-linked sectors and resilient financial earnings, though gains were capped by ongoing geopolitical and interest rate uncertainty. Asian markets were mixed, with Japan (Nikkei 225: 0.0%) weighed down by tech selloffs and higher oil prices, while China (SSE: -1.1%) declined amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties despite strong industrial data. Emerging markets (MSCI EM: -1.0%) fell, led by India (-0.8%), while Frontier markets (MSCI FM: +0.1%) edged higher, supported by gains in Vietnam (+1.5%) and Romania (+0.1%).
Domestic Economy
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) show that Nigeria’s crude oil production (including condensates) fell by 8.8% m/m to 1.48 mb/d in February (January: 1.63 mb/d), reversing the prior month’s increase and marking its lowest level since June 2024. The contraction was primarily driven by reduced output from the Bonga field, following the commencement of turnaround maintenance on February 1, scheduled for completion on March 18, 2026. As a result, production at the field fell sharply by 98.5% m/m to 0.06 mb/d (January: 3.70 mb/d). At the terminal level, output declined across several key export streams, including Forcados (-21.9% m/m), Tulja-Okwuibome (-21.1% m/m), Escravos (-11.0% m/m), Odudu (-4.3% m/m), and Qua Iboe (-3.5% m/m). In contrast, production increased at Agbami (+5.9% m/m), Bonny (+1.8% m/m), and Brass (+0.7% m/m). Looking ahead, we expect crude oil production to recover in the near term, supported by increased investment, improved security conditions, and the integration of new oil fields and evacuation infrastructure. However, intermittent terminal shutdowns —largely reflecting persistent infrastructure constraints—remain a key downside risk. Overall, we maintain our 2026E average production forecast at 1.75 mb/d.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), capital importation into Nigeria increased by 7.1% q/q to USD6.44 billion in Q4-25 (Q3-25: USD6.01 billion). The increase reflects strengthening foreign investor confidence, underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions, ongoing policy reforms, and attractive carry-trade opportunities. A breakdown of inflows shows growth in foreign direct investment (FDI), which rose by 20.0% q/q to USD357.80 million, and foreign portfolio investment (FPI), up 13.0% q/q to USD5.49 billion. This was partially offset by a contraction in other investments, which declined by 30.6% q/q to USD599.65 million. On a year-on-year basis, capital importation rose by 26.6% from USD5.09 billion in Q4-24. For the full year, capital importation reached USD23.22 billion in 2025, significantly higher than USD12.32 billion in 2024. Looking ahead, sustained FX reforms, an improved external position, and still-attractive carry trade dynamics are expected to continue supporting foreign capital inflows. However, this positive momentum may be moderated by cautious investor sentiment amid elevated global uncertainty, particularly ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Capital Markets
Equities
The domestic stock market traded on a bearish note this week, primarily driven by losses in MTNN (-5.3%), ZENITHBANK (-6.4%), FIRSTHOLDCO (-4.7%), and UBA (-2.1%). Consequently, the All-Share Index declined by 0.1% w/w to 200,913.06 points, bringing month-to-date and year-to-date returns to +4.2% and +29.1%, respectively. Market activity weakened, with trading volume and value declining by 54.9% and 25.6% w/w, respectively. Sectoral performance was mixed, as the Oil & Gas (-0.3%) and Consumer Goods (-1.0%) indices declined while the Industrial Goods (+9.5%), Insurance (+1.8%), and Banking (+1.7%) indices advanced.
Looking ahead, we expect trading to remain choppy with a cautious bias, as profit-taking persists around the 200,000-point resistance level. Nonetheless, the expected release of Tier-1 banks’ earnings next week could provide a near-term catalyst for selective positioning, particularly in the banking space.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate increased by 6bps w/w to 22.3% as debits for the OMO PMA (NGN4.11 trillion) outweighed inflows from OMO (NGN1.44 trillion) and net NTB (NGN112.27 billion) maturities. Consequently, system liquidity moderated to an average net long position of NGN7.39 trillion, down from NGN7.56 trillion in the prior week.
In the absence of any liquidity mop-up activities by the Central Bank of Nigeria next week, system liquidity is expected to be bolstered by NGN1.02 trillion in OMO maturities, which should support a moderation in the OVN rate.
Treasury Bills
Sentiment was mixed in the Treasury Bills secondary market, with NTB yields advancing by 6bps to 17.8% as investors unwound positions ahead of the NTB PMA, while OMO yields declined by 34bps to 20.3%, amid renewed demand in the secondary market, supported by the absence of long-dated OMO issuances at primary market. Overall, the average yield across all instruments eased by 16bps to 18.9%. At Wednesday’s NTB PMA, the Debt Management Office (DMO) offered NGN400.00 billion, attracting strong demand of NGN2.89 trillion. Total allotments came in at NGN520.67 billion across tenors, with stop rates on the 182-day and 364-day bills declining by 20bps apiece to 16.42% and 16.43%, respectively, while the 91-day bill held steady at 15.95%. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) conducted two OMO auctions during the week, both significantly oversubscribed, reflecting robust system liquidity. At the first auction, NGN600.00 billion was offered across the 8- and 113-day maturities, with allotments of NGN305.55 billion (8-day) and NGN2.04 trillion (113-day) at stop rates of 21.90% and 19.79%, respectively. At the second auction, NGN600.00 billion was again offered, with NGN1.75 trillion allotted across the 33-, 75-, and 96-day instruments at stop rates of 21.57%, 119.75%, and 19.94%, respectively.
We expect yields to trend lower in the coming week, supported by the still strong system liquidity. However, heightened global uncertainty poses a downside risk to this outlook.
Bonds
The FGN bond market closed bearish as offshore players continued to pare down their bond positions amid the prevailing global risk‑off sentiment, while strong demand from local banks provided notable support across the curve. Accordingly, average yields increased by 5bps to 15.8%. Across the curve, the average yield increased at the short (+9bps) and mid (+13bps) segments driven by sell pressures on the AUG-2030 (+20bps) and APR-2032 (+21bps) bonds, respectively, while the average yield declined at the long end (-11bps) driven by demand for the MAR-2036 (-86bps) bond.
In the coming week, we expect the FGN bond auction scheduled for Monday (March 30) to shape trading dynamics. Over the medium term, yields are likely to trend lower, albeit at a slower pace, reflecting prevailing risk off sentiment among investors.
Foreign Exchange
The naira traded in a volatile manner this week, as persistent demand pressures outweighed available supply. The currency depreciated by 1.9% w/w to NGN1,383.41/USD. The CBN marginally supported the market with a limited intervention of about USD30.00 million, leaving market forces to dictate price action. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s external reserves declined by approximately USD309.00 million w/w to USD49.48 billion (March 26). In the forwards market, the naira rates depreciated across the 1-month (-2.3% to NGN1,411.24/USD), 3-month (-3.1% to NGN1,460.1/USD), 6-month (-4.9% to NGN1,544.21/USD) and 1-year (-7.1% to NGN1,696.21/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near term, although downside risk persists. Despite heightened investor caution stemming from the ongoing US–Iran conflict, a relatively supportive external backdrop and elevated naira yields should continue to underpin foreign portfolio inflows, albeit at a slower pace compared to pre-conflict levels. Nonetheless, should demand pressures re-emerge, we expect the CBN to undertake measured FX interventions to contain excessive volatility.
