Global Markets

United States

The S&P Global US Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.4 points in March 2026 from 51.9 points in February 2026. This marks its lowest level since April 2025 and signals a second consecutive month of slowing economic activity. Although still above the 50 points threshold, weaker new orders and rising prices, largely driven by the Middle East conflict, pushed business activity to an 11-month low. Notably, the slowdown was led by the services sector, while manufacturing showed resilience, with PMI rising to 52.4 points. Overall, this development, along with the US-Iran conflict raises stagflation risks and may constrain US Federal Reserve policy.

Euro Area
The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 50.5 points in March 2026 from 51.9 points in February 2026, signaling marginal growth and the weakest private sector expansion in ten months. This slowdown reflected weak services, declining new orders, and falling employment amid Middle East uncertainty. In contrast, manufacturing showed strength, with PMI rising to 51.4 points, the fastest growth in 45 months. For the Euro Area, this mix of weak growth, Middle East tensions and rising inflation signals stagflation risks and limits policy flexibility.

Asia

Japan’s inflation slowed to 1.3% year-on-year (y/y) in February 2026 from 1.5% in January 2026. This is the lowest since March 2022, as declining energy costs and moderating food prices eased overall price pressures. This may change from March 2026 due to increase in energy prices. Core inflation also dropped to 1.6%, slipping below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in four years. Meanwhile, the S&P Global Composite PMI eased to 52.9 points in March from 53.9 points in February. This signals continued expansion but at the weakest pace in three months amid softer output and demand.

Oil Markets

Oil prices remained highly volatile this week, with Brent trading between $99.94 and $108.01 per barrel. This was driven by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, which has slashed crude and refined product exports to below 10% of pre-conflict volumes. The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed its record 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release, announced March 11, will begin flowing to markets by end of March. Markets barely reacted to this news and US crude immediately climbed back above $90 after the announcement.

Outlook

This week, global equity markets are expected to remain volatile. This will be driven by geopolitical headlines, particularly the Iran conflict and ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption. Expectations of prolonged Fed rate holds limit upside for rate-sensitive equities. European markets will face continued pressure from elevated energy costs, which are pushing inflation higher and constraining the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ability to ease policy. In Asia, weak investment growth in China, alongside Japan’s slowing growth and easing inflation, highlights a fragile outlook amid rising energy costs and soft external demand. Oil markets remain tight, with continued Strait disruptions likely to sustain upward pressure on prices and drive global inflation risks. A credible ceasefire or diplomatic resolution remains the key trigger for easing oil prices and supporting a broader global market recovery.

Domestic Economy

Nigeria’s capital importation rose to $6.44 billion in Q4 2025, up by 26.61% year-on-year from $5.09 billion, signaling sustained recovery in foreign inflows. On a quarterly basis, inflows increased by 7.13% from $6.01 billion in Q3 2025, driven mainly by strong portfolio investments and improved banking sector participation. This momentum reflects improving investor confidence, supported by relative FX stability and renewed interest in high-yield domestic assets. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) directed International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to open Naira settlement accounts with authorised dealer banks to enhance remittance oversight and FX market transparency. The policy aims to strengthen FX management and reduce leakages in diaspora inflows, reinforcing broader efforts to stabilise the foreign exchange market. For Nigeria, this supports external liquidity and FX market efficiency.

Equity Market

The Nigerian Exchange All Share Index (NGX-ASI) fell marginally by 0.12% week on week (W/W), retaining the 200,000 points mark, and closing at 200,913.06 points, with year to date at 29.11%. Market capitalisation stood at ₦128.97tn. The Insurance sector recorded the highest gain during the week while the Banking sector recorded the least performance.

Fixed Income and Money Market

The fixed income market recorded mixed sentiments during the week. In the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) segment, yields fell on the medium to long-term ends of the curve, with the 182-day and 364-day tenor yields falling to 17.62% and 19.38% respectively. Only the 91-day tenor yield rose to 16.18%. This indicates that investors believe interest rate will increase in the short-term. The Overnight rate rose marginally to 22.30%. In the bond market, yields mostly rose, with the 3-year, 5-year and 7-year tenor yields rising to 16.07%, 16.25% and 16.27% respectively. On the flip side, only the 10-year bond yield fell to 14.85%. This reflects selective buying interest, although overall sentiment remains cautious given the interplay between easing domestic policy and persistent external risks.

Outlook:

Equity Market

This week, the Nigerian equity market may maintain its bullish momentum. However, some moderation is likely as investors consolidate positions, although the broader uptrend remains supported by improved earnings visibility and macro conditions. Overall, the structural bull run remains intact, supported by improving macro visibility, but investors should remain alert to global risk-off sentiment and potential profit-taking as valuations stretch.

Fixed Income Market

This week, the fixed income market is set to remain in an easing phase, with declining yields driven by strong liquidity and robust demand for government securities. Nonetheless, elevated global oil prices and inflation risks may slow the pace of yield compression, keeping the outlook data dependent.