Nigerian equities sustained positive momentum this week, extending gains for the second consecutive week. All-Share Index advanced by 1.0% w/w to 203,791.18 points.
April 10, 2026/Cordros Report
Global
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US headline inflation accelerated sharply by 90bps to 3.3% y/y in March (February: +2.4% y/y), marking its highest level since May 2024 and surpassing market expectations of 3.2% y/y. The uptick in price pressures was driven predominantly by a surge in energy inflation, following a sharp increase in crude oil and gas prices amid escalating Middle East tensions. Specifically, energy inflation rose markedly to 12.5% y/y from 0.5% y/y in the previous month, reflecting significant increases in gas (+18.9% y/y vs February: +6.2% y/y) and fuel oil (+44.2% y/y vs February: -5.6% y/y) prices. In contrast, food inflation moderated to 2.7% y/y (February: +3.1% y/y), supported by softer increases in both food at home (+1.9% y/y vs February: +2.4% y/y) and food away from home (+3.8% y/y vs February: +3.9% y/y). Meanwhile, core inflation (excluding volatile components) edged higher by 10bps to 2.6% y/y, driven by firm price pressures across clothing, medical care commodities, and transportation services. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose sharply by 0.9% m/m (February: +0.3% m/m).
Looking ahead, price pressures are expected to remain elevated due to higher energy prices linked to the Middle East conflicts. Should energy prices remain elevated for longer, the current uptick in headline inflation could begin to spill over into core inflation, becoming more entrenched as persistent cost pressures feed through to transportation, production, and broader services components. While the recent spike in inflation is largely energy driven, it is likely to reinforce caution within the Federal Reserve, prompting it to maintain its policy rate at the next meeting (April 29) while closely monitoring for second round effects and any sustained pickup in core inflation.
According to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics consumer prices moderated to 1.0% y/y in March, easing from February’s three-year high of +1.3% y/y and coming in below market expectations of +1.2% y/y. The deceleration largely reflects the typical post–Lunar New Year normalization, which drove softer price prints across both food and non-food components. Specifically, food inflation slowed sharply to +0.3% y/y (February: +1.7% y/y), underpinned by notable declines in fresh vegetable and fruit prices, alongside a steeper drop in pork prices. Similarly, non-food inflation (+1.2% y/y vs February: +1.3% y/y) inched lower as higher transport costs were offset by subdued increases in clothing and education prices. Elsewhere, core inflation (which excludes food and energy) also eased to 1.1% y/y, retreating from a seven-year high of 1.8% y/y in February, indicating a broader moderation in underlying price pressures. Looking ahead, inflationary pressures should remain relatively contained, following a normalization from February’s holiday driven spike. In addition, while China remains the world’s largest importer of oil, its strategic stockpiles and diversified energy sources should help cushion near-term price pressures.
Global Market
Global equities traded on a positive note this week, as a two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreement boosted risk appetite. The Pakistan-brokered ceasefire, though fragile, prompted Washington to pause planned strikes on Iranian civilian infrastructure. Iran, in turn, agreed to allow a limited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for a two-week period easing concerns over energy supply disruptions and supporting expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East. At the time of writing, major US indices (DJIA: +3.6%; S&P 500: +3.7%; NASDAQ 100: +3.6%) were poised to end the week higher, as investors reacted positively to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market performance was supported by increased interest in mega cap growth stocks, including AMZN, META, and NVDA, alongside early positioning in banking tickers ahead of next week’s Q1-26 earnings releases. Similarly, European equities (STOXX Europe 600: +2.7%; FTSE 100: +1.6%) are also set to advance, tracking improved global risk sentiments following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Sentiments were also supported by signs of potential progress in Russia-Ukraine peace discussions. Elsewhere, Asian equities (Nikkei 225: +7.2%; SSE: +2.8%) advanced, buoyed by the ceasefire agreement reached in the Middle East alongside positive reaction to CoreWeave’s USD21.00 billion agreement to provide computing capacity to META which sparked a rally in AI and Technology linked tickers. Finally, Emerging and Frontier markets (MSCI EM: +6.1%; MSCI FM: +3.4%) indices advanced, driven by gains in China (+2.7%) and Romania (+2.1%), respectively.
Domestic Economy
Based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Company Income Tax (CIT) collections declined sharply by 49.8% q/q to NGN1.49 trillion in Q4-25 (Q3-25: NGN2.96 trillion), marking the weakest quarterly outturn since Q1-25. The contrast was primarily driven by broad based weakness across key contributing sectors, alongside the effect of naira appreciation, which likely compressed the local currency value of foreign currency denominated tax inflows. Analysing the breakdown, both local (-32.2% q/q to NGN819.83 billion | 55.1% of total collections) and foreign CIT (-61.9% q/q to NGN668.21 billion | 44.9% of total collections) payments declined. Despite the sequential weakness, CIT collections grew by 13.4% y/y (Q4-24: NGN1.31 trillion), reflecting stronger underlying tax performance relative to the prior year. On a full year basis, total CIT collections surged to a three-year high of NGN9.22 trillion in 2025FY (2024FY: NGN3.14 trillion), underscoring a significant expansion in tax receipts over the period. Looking ahead, we expect CIT collections to strengthen in the near term, supported by the implementation of the new tax laws aimed at enhancing revenue mobilization and improving collection efficiency. However, rising price pressures are likely to weigh on corporate profitability in the near term, potentially limiting the pace of growth in CIT collections.
According to recently released data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Value-Added Tax (VAT) collections rose by 12.8% y/y to NGN2.20 trillion in Q4-25 (Q4-24: +62.2% y/y to NGN1.95 trillion). The increase reflects the combined effects of resilient domestic consumption and a continued rise in domestic prices, albeit at a more moderate pace. On a q/q basis, total VAT receipts declined by 3.8% (Q3-25: +10.7% q/q to NGN2.28 trillion), underpinned by weaker inflows from foreign VAT (-26.0% q/q to NGN503.13 billion) amid stronger inflows from Nigerian Customs Service import VAT (+11.7% q/q to NGN535.73 billion) and local VAT (+3.1% q/q to NGN1.16 trillion). For 2025FY, total VAT collections stood at NGN8.61 trillion, up 28.1% y/y from NGN6.72 trillion in 2024FY. Looking ahead, we expect resilient consumer demand and still elevated inflation to continue supporting VAT receipts. However, recent currency appreciation may temper growth in import-related VAT—particularly by reducing the naira value of dutiable imports—thereby moderating the overall expansion in VAT collections.
Capital Markets
Equities
Nigerian equities sustained positive momentum this week, extending gains for the second consecutive week. Market sentiment was buoyed by favorable corporate earnings releases and dividend announcements from banking tickers, as well as improved investor confidence following FTSE Russell’s reclassification of Nigeria’s market status from Unclassified to Frontier Market. Precisely, the All-Share Index advanced by 1.0% w/w to 203,791.18 points, driven primarily by gains in GTCO (+10.7%), WAPCO (+9.0%), ZENITHBANK (+8.7%), SEPLAT (+5.0%) and NESTLE (+6.4%). Consequently, the month-to-date and year-to-date returns improved to +5.7% and +31.0%, respectively. On trading activity, trading volume and value advanced by 20.5% w/w and 37.6% w/w, respectively. Meanwhile sectoral performance was mixed, as Banking (+0.7%) was the sole gainer, while Insurance (-4.2%), Consumer Goods (-1.7%) and Industrial Goods (-0.2%) indices declined. The Oil and Gas index ended the week flat.
Next week, investors are likely to trade with a more cautious bias. Focus will shift to macro data, particularly the March inflation print, where we expect headline inflation to edge up to 15.40%. At the same time, early positioning ahead of Q1 earnings is likely to pick up, which should drive selective participation across stocks.
Money Market and Fixed Income
Money Market
The OVN rate rose by 4bps w/w to 22.4% as lower SDF placements offset NGN2.12 trillion in inflows from OMO maturities. That said, system liquidity remained strong , settling at an average net long position of NGN6.62 trillion from NGN5.67 trillion in the prior week.
Barring any mop up activities by the CBN, system liquidity is expected to strengthen further, supported by NGN640.15 billion in OMO maturities and NGN92.14 billion in FGN bond coupon payments, potentially causing a moderation in the OVN rate.
Treasury Bills
The Treasury Bills secondary market traded on a bearish note with average yields expanding by 6bps to 18.8%. By segment, NTB yields fell 14bps to 17.5%, while OMO yields rose by 44bps to 20.8%. At Wednesday’s PMA, the DMO offered NGN700.00 billion in bills, with aggregate subscriptions reaching NGN2.96 trillion. Eventually, NGN731.78 billion was allotted across the 91-day, 182-day, and 365-day papers at respective stop rates of 15.95%, 16.19%, and 16.20%.
The inflows into the system could likely be sterilized by the CBN undermining demand for bills and likely causing only a marginal decline. This will likely be further weighed by sell pressures in the OMO segment as investors continue to assess the global backdrop.
Bonds
Meanwhile, the FGN bond secondary market was bearish, with the average yield up by 10bps to 15.9%. Across the benchmark curve, the average yield expanded at the short (+61bps) end, driven by sell pressures on the MAR-2027 (+157bps) bond, while it declined at the mid (-1bp) and long(-2bps) segments, driven by demand for the FEB-2034 (-22bps) and JAN-2042 (-9bps) bonds respectively.
Over the medium term, yields are expected to trend lower, primarily supported by strong domestic liquidity conditions, though the pace of compression may be tempered by persistent risk-off sentiment and an increased government borrowing plan.
Foreign Exchange
The naira appreciated by 2.0% w/w to NGN1,355.0/USD, with no interventions from the CBN during the week. Meanwhile, gross external reserves declined by USD240.00 million to USD48.89 billion (08 April 2026), marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. In the forwards market, the naira rates appreciated across the 1-month (1.7% to NGN1,383.41/USD), 3-month (1.6% to NGN1,421.8/USD), 6-month (1.5% to NGN1,477.0/USD) and 1-year (0.1% to NGN1,589.0/USD) contracts.
We expect the naira to remain broadly stable in the near term, although downside risk persists. Despite heightened Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) caution stemming from the ongoing US–Iran conflict, a relatively supportive external backdrop and elevated naira yields should continue to underpin foreign portfolio inflows, albeit at a slower pace compared to pre-conflict levels. Nonetheless, should demand pressures re-emerge, we expect the CBN to undertake measured FX interventions to contain excessive volatility.
