Culled—Proshare
19/9/2017/NBS
Summary
In the second quarter of 2017, overall passenger traffic (domestic and international) increased by 21.06% over the previous quarter but declined by -18.56% year on year. Similarly, aircraft movement increased by 11.23% in Q2 2017 over Q1 2017 but declined by -20.40% year on year.
We attribute the quarter on quarter growth in Q2 2017 over Q1 2017, partly due to closure of the Nnamdi Azikwe International Airport, Abuja between late Q1 2017 and early Q1 2017 which led to a general decline in passenger and aircraft movement and the reopening of the Abuja airport in the second half of Q2 2017 which once again increased activity in the aviation sector.
Our conclusion is further buttressed by the fact that Kaduna and Niger (Minna) Airports which are both close to Abuja and serve as alternative routed to Abuja, recorded significant increase in passenger traffic and aircraft movement year on year while all other airports recorded mostly negative year on year growth.
This strong decline in year on year passenger and aircraft movement I Q2 2017 can be attributed to high double-digit inflation during Q2 2017 which averaged 16.53% year on year in Q2 2017, thereby squeezing household baskets. In particular, air fare charges have grown on average 57.3% (four major airports (Lagos, Kano, Abuja and Port Harcourt) in Q2 2017 over the average in Q2 2016. During the period under review, air travel was largely restricted to necessary and business- related activities.
For the half year of 2017, overall passenger traffic decreased by 23.85% year on year, while aircraft movement declined by -24.53%
With respect to cargo and mail, Q2 2017 Cargo was 1.39% higher than in Q1 2017 but -7.72% lower than the level in Q2 2016, while mail was 28.57% higher in Q2 2017 than Q1 2017 and 1,070.9% higher than Q2 2016
Murtala Muhammed Airport (MMA) in Lagos, as usual, recorded the most activities during the quarter, accounting for 40.7% of domestic passengers, 74.8% of international passengers, 89.0% of cargo movement and 96.7% of mail movement. In terms economic output, the Air transport sector in the 2nd quarter increased marginally in real terms by 0.15%, slightly down from the rate recorded in the previous quarter, when it recorded 1.53% growth.
Figure 1: Real Year on Year Growth in Air Transport Sector, (%)
Total Passenger Traffic
In the second quarter of 2017, the total number of passengers to go through Nigerian airports was 3,033,182. Of these, 70.6% were domestic passengers, travelling within Nigeria, and the rest were international passengers, entering or leaving Nigeria. This represents an increase of 527,570 (21.1%) relative to the number reported in the first quarter of the year.
However, the number was still 1.8% less than in the fourth quarter of 2016 when the total number of passengers was 3,489,317. It was also 20.34% less passengers than travelled in Q2 2016 (2,688,800).
Figure 1: Total Number of Passengers, 2016 – 2017 Q2, Domestic and International
Domestic Passenger Traffic
There was an increase in the number of domestic passengers by 27.1%, from 456,138 in Q1 2017 to 2,141,829 in the second quarter of 2017. Year on year however, there was a decline of 546,971 or (20.3%) in passenger traffic numbers in Q2 2017. Murtala Muhammed Airport (MMA) in Lagos remained the busiest domestic airport in the second quarter of 2017, and accounted for 870,795 domestic passengers or (40.7%) of the total.
This was 0.8% lower than the share in the previous quarter. Despite its closure for a few weeks in March/April before it commenced business, Abuja airport nevertheless recorded the second highest number of domestic passengers, accounting for 608,533 or (28.4%) of the total in Q2 2017.
It recorded a quarterly increase of 109,384 (21.9%) in passenger numbers, and a year on year drop of 255,218, (29.5%). Port Harcourt airport, which was the third busiest domestic airport in Q2 2017, decreased its share of passengers by 1.8% relative to the previous quarter, recording an increase of 13,038 (6.9%) from the previous quarterly and a decline of 55,376 (21.4%) year over year.
Kaduna airport which was officially designated to replace Abuja airport during its 6 weeks closure recorded significant growth in both domestic passenger and aircraft movement. On a quarter on quarter basis, Kaduna Airport, domestic passenger traffic, grew by 463.5% and by 138.9% year on year. Similarly, domestic aircraft movement grew 120.05% year on year and 399.47% quarter on quarter.
While total domestic passengers traffic to and from Kaduna Airport increased for the half year 2017 by 42,246 persons over the same period in 2016, it did not fully compensate for the drop in domestic passenger movement for Abuja Airport for the same period which declined by 577,170 persons between half year 2016 and half year 2017, following the closure of Abuja airport. Similarly, the increase in domestic aircraft movement in Kaduna airport for the half year 2017 compared to half year 2016 of 557 flights did not fully compensate for the decline in domestic aircraft movement by 12,456 for Abuja Airport during the same periods under review following the closure of the Abuja airport.
Figure 3: Domestic Passengers by Main Airport, 2017 Q1 and 2017 Q2
International Passenger Traffic
Under international travel, MMA in Lagos accounted for the largest number of international travelers, with 666,429 passing through it in the second quarter of 2017, a share of 74.8% of total international passengers in quarter 2 of 2017. This was an increase of 39,023 or (6.2%) over the previous quarter, and a decline of 53,560 (7.4%) over the corresponding quarter of 2016.
Abuja airport remained the second busiest international airport in Q2 2017, accounting for 129,489 passengers or 14.5% of the total international passenger numbers. Kano International Airport remained the third largest in terms of international passenger traffic in the second quarter of 2017, with 57,273 passengers. This was an increase of 18,772 (48.8%) over the quarter. Year on year however, the number of passengers travelling through Kano International fell by 10,001 (14.9%). Kano’s share in the second quarter of 2017 was 6.4%, 1.7% higher than the 4.7% recorded in the previous quarter.
Kaduna airport which was officially designated to replace Abuja airport during its 6 weeks closure recorded significant growth in both international and passenger and aircraft movement. On a quarter on quarter basis, Kaduna Airport, international passenger traffic, grew from zero in Q1 2017 to 7,250 persons in Q2 2017. On a year on year basis, international passenger traffic in Kaduna Airport grew by 5700% from 125 persons in Q2 2017 to 7,250 persons in Q2 2017.
Similarly, international aircraft movement grew 536.36% year on year from 11 international aircraft movements in Q2 2016 to 70 in Q2 201. On a quarter on quarter basis, aircraft movement increased from zero in Q1 2017 to 70 in Q2 2017.
While total international passengers traffic to and from Kaduna Airport increased for the half year 2017 by 6,948 persons over the same period in 2016, it did not fully compensate for the drop in domestic passenger movement for Abuja Airport for the same period which declined by 183,120 persons between half year 2016 and half year 2017, following the closure of Abuja airport.
Similarly, the increase in international aircraft movement in Kaduna airport for the half year 2017 compared to half year 2016 of 45 international flights did not fully compensate for the decline in international aircraft movement by 485 international flights for Abuja Airport during the same periods under review following the closure of the Abuja airport.
Figure 4: International Passengers by Main Airport, 2017 Q1 and 2017 Q2
Total Aircraft Movement
In the second quarter of 2017, a total of 46,640 aircrafts arrived at, or departed from Nigerian Airports. Relative to the previous quarter, this was an increase of 4,708 or (11.2%) relative to the total. Year on year, this was a decline of 12,537 (21.2%) in the number of aircrafts moving through Nigerian airports. On average, international flights carried more passengers per aircraft than the domestic flights during the period.
There was an average of 60 passengers on each domestic flight, compared to an average of 83 passengers per international flight in the second quarter. In each case, this represents an increase in the average number of passengers per aircraft relative to the previous quarter, when the figure was 51 for domestic flights and 92 for international.
Figure 5: Domestic/International Split of Aircraft by Airport, Q2 2017
Domestic Aircraft Movement
The total number of domestic aircraft movement in the second quarter was 35,950. MMA airport(Lagos) accounted for the largest share of domestic flights, accounting for 38.9%, down by 3.7% from the share recorded in the previous quarter. It recorded a quarterly and yearly fall in actual number of aircrafts traveling through it, down by 113 or (0.8%) and 2,356 or (14.4%) respectively.
Similarly, Abuja Airport accounted for 22.5% of total domestic flights in the second quarter of 2017, also down 3.3% from the share it accounted for in quarter 1 of 2017. This was a decline both on a quarterly and yearly basis, declining by 438 or (5.1%) and 5,772 or (41.6%) respectively. During the quarter, Port Harcourt airport also recorded a decline of 3.3% in the number of aircrafts fly through it while kano, Enugu and Kaduna recorded increases of 19.8%, 14.8% and 399.5% respectively.
International Aircraft Movement
The total number of international flights recorded in second quarter was 10,690. MMA airport in Lagos remained the busiest international airport recording a share of 62.9% of total international flights in the second quarter. This is down by 10.9% from the share it recorded in quarter 1 of 2017, to reach 6,729, but an increase of 201 or (3.1%) over the previous quarter. Abuja airport accounted for the second largest number of international flights, recording a 10% increase over the previous quarter. It also recorded a 26.1% share of total international flights in the second quarter of 2017, which was higher than the share of 16.1% it reported in the first quarter.
Cargo Movement by Airports
In the second quarter of 2017, cargo movement increased by 1.4% relative to the previous quarter, but decreased by 7.7% relative to the same quarter of 2016. Consequently, the total volume of cargo moved was 42,033,390 kilograms, compared to 41,457,573kilograms in the previous quarter. This represents an increase of 575,817 kilograms over the previous quarter, and a decline of 3,518,097 kilograms compared to the corresponding quarter of 2016.
Figure 6: Weight of Cargo Moved Through Nigerian Airports, 2016 – 2017 Q2, Million KG
As in previous periods, the bulk of cargo weight to move through Nigerian airports went through MMA airport in Lagos. In the second quarter of 2017, Lagos accounted for 89.0% of the total cargo moved, a lower share compared to the previous quarter, when it recorded 90.3%.
As a result, the weight of cargo to move through Lagos in the second quarter of 2017 was 37,392,871 kilograms, a 0.1% increase over the previous quarter, and 14.5% less than volume recorded in the same quarter of 2016.
Port Harcourt airport accounted for the second largest volume of cargo in the second quarter of 2017, accounting for 2,755,574kilograms of cargo, and a share of 6.6% of the total. It also increased by 468,095 kilograms (1.1%) when compared to the previous quarter.
Kano airport recorded 1,263,261 kilograms of cargo, which is a 3% share of the total, as against the 1,063,000 kilograms it recorded in the previous quarter. Abuja accounted for a total cargo weight of 458,430 kilograms, a share of 1.1% of the total cargo recorded in the second quarter.
Post Moved by Airport
In the second quarter of 2017, the total weight of mails transported through Nigerian airports was 8,313,347 kilograms, higher by 1,847,136kg or (28.6%) to the weight recorded in the previous quarter, and a 7,603,361 kg or (1,070.9%) increase over the corresponding quarter of last year.
Figure 7: Weight of Post Moved Through Nigerian Airports, 2016 – 2017 Q2, Thousand KG
Lagos airport dominated in terms total mails moved, accounting for 8,042,354 kilograms of mails, an increase of 31% over the previous quarter, and 7,613,466 kilograms or (1775.2%) increase on the corresponding quarter of last year.
Abuja recorded 270,993 kilograms of mails in the second quarter, a contraction of 55,650 kilograms or (17%) relative to the previous quarter, and a year on year decrease of 0.4%. It accounted for 3.3% share of total mails moved. No other airports were recorded as moving any mail in this period.