November 20, 2017/Cordros Report
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) just released Nigeria’s Q3-2017 GDP figure, showing that the domestic economy expanded for the second consecutive quarter, with real GDP growing by 1.40% y/y (vs. revised 0.72% y/y in the previous quarter and -2.34% y/y in Q3-2016). The growth estimate came in 10 bps lower than Bloomberg’s compiled median estimate of 1.50%.
A quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure shows that the oil sector grew by 25.89% (from 3.53% in Q2-2017 and -23.04% in Q3-2016). Over the three months period, output from the oil sector was supported by relatively higher domestic crude oil production. The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months period to be 2.03mbpd, which improved from the 1.87mbpd reported in Q2-17, and also ahead of the 1.61mbpd achieved in Q3-2016. Compared to Q2-17, the oil sector grew by 21.10%, contributing 8.89% of total GDP (vs. 8.09% and 9.04% in the corresponding quarter of 2016 and Q2-17 respectively).
Output in the non-oil sector slowed, declining by 0.76% y/y in Q3-2017, 79 bps and 120 bps lower than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 and in the previous quarter respectively. The non-Oil sector contributed 89.96% to total GDP, (vs. 91.91% and 90.96% in the corresponding quarter of 2016 and Q2-17 respectively).
A breakdown of two of the biggest components of the GDP, shows that agriculture grew by 3.06% y/y (vs. 3.01% y/y in Q2-2017 and 4.54% in Q3-16) while manufacturing declined by 2.85% y/y – 153 bps higher than Q3-2016’s figure but 349 bps lower than the rate recorded in the previous quarter.
In terms of contribution, services, agriculture, and industries, respectively, accounted for 48.28%, 29.15%, and 22.56% of overall output growth.