Culled—Proshare
January 24, 2018/Cordros Capital Research
The global economy outperformed most predictions in 2017, and the momentum is expected to continue in 2018. Interestingly thus far, the recovery is broad-based across most advanced, emerging, and developing economies.
Back home, Nigeria’s economy has recovered from the recession of 2016, and is forecast to grow at its fastest pace in two years in 2018. All economic indicators point to positive direction and the sound of downside risks is barely perceptible.
While we share consensus view of broadly better economic prospect, we should also mention, in Nigeria’s case, the strong commodity risk factor backing the outlook. As a result, in this edition of our report on Nigeria and its markets, we discuss the outlook for 2018 in three different scenarios and specifically, the implications of each scenario.
We believe this is the best course to take during recovery in a sub-optimally diversified economy, with weak stabilizers. This is the year to “look beneath the surface!”
We base the scenarios on developments that are familiar with Nigeria, and hence, consider each of them a likely occurrence. But on balance, we rank the scenarios 2-3-1 in order of likelihood.