Culled—Proshare
April 13, 2018/FBNQuest Research
The latest report from the NBS has headline inflation y/y at 13.3% in March. This is the fourteenth successive monthly slowdown, and by a healthy 99bps on this occasion. The driver was a decline in food price inflation from 17.6% to 16.1% y/y. Core inflation also slowed, from 11.7% to 11.2% y/y. Our expectation, shared with wire services, was 13.6% y/y for the headline measure.
Food price inflation y/y has now slowed in large steps for four successive months. This is not a response to the actions of the monetary policy committee (MPC), which has often noted that supply-side factors beyond its control were responsible for the stubbornness of food price inflation.
Imported food price inflation m/m has been sticky since late last year. Since the CBN’s policies have brought fx rate stability, we assume that the cause has been the higher US dollar price of the products.
The bureau also tracks inflation by state, with the highest 16.4% y/y in Bauchi in March and the lowest 10.3% in Kwara. However, it cautions that household baskets vary across states.
