17/4/2018/IMF
The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become broader and stronger. This new World Economic Outlook report projects that advanced economies as a group will continue to expand above their potential growth rates this year and next before decelerating, while growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off.
For most countries, current favorable growth rates will not last. Policymakers should seize this opportunity to bolster growth, make it more durable, and equip their governments better to counter the next downturn.
Global growth seems on track to reach 3.9 percent this year and next, substantially above our October forecast. Helping to drive this output acceleration is faster growth in the euro area, Japan, China, and the United States, all of which grew above expectations last year, along with some recovery in commodity exporters. Along with China, several other emerging market and developing economies will also do better this year than in our past projections—that group includes Brazil, Mexico, and emerging Europe.
The aggregate gains for this country group are, however, weighed down by sharp downward revisions for a few countries in the grip of civil strife, notably Libya, Venezuela, and Yemen. Growing trade and investment continue as notable factors powering the global upswing. Growth this broad based and strong has not been seen since the world’s initial sharp 2010 bounce back from the financial crisis of 2008–09.
The synchronized expansion will help to dispel some remaining legacies of the crisis by speeding the exit from unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies, encouraging investment, and healing labor market scars.