Oil prices fall as market awaits Trump decision on Iran

Should Trump pull the United States out of a multi-nation agreement on Tehran’s nuclear program, Iranian crude exports could be hit, adding to tightness in the oil market, which is coming back into balance after years of glut.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 had dropped 78 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $69.95 a barrel by 0550 GMT. They settled above $70 for the first time since November 2014 on Monday.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 67 cents, or 0.9 percent, at $75.50, having jumped 1.7 percent to settle at $76.17 a barrel in the previous session. 

Trump said on Monday that a decision on whether to remain in the Iran nuclear deal or to impose sanctions would be announced at 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Tuesday, four days earlier than expected.

“Until we get more clarity on Trump’s intentions, we are unlikely to get further upside on crude,” said Virendra Chauhan, oil analyst at Energy Aspects in Singapore. 

“If we assume he goes back to 2012 sanctions, we estimate a loss of 0.4 million barrels a day of Iranian supply based on recent Iranian export numbers. Anything larger than this will be bullish,” he added.

Trump is likely to either announce he will not be renewing a waiver on sanctions or will restate his opposition to the nuclear agreement, Barclays Research analysts said in a report.

“Regardless, his foreign policy continues to ignite tensions in the main oil-exporting center and is, thus, price supportive,” they said.

If Trump restores core U.S. sanctions, under U.S. law he must wait at least 180 days before imposing their furthest-reaching measure, which is to target banks of nations that fail to significantly cut their purchases of Iranian oil. 

Under the deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the U.S. agreed to ease a series of sanctions on Iran and has done so under a string of “waivers” that effectively suspend them.

Trump has repeatedly threatened to withdraw from the deal, unless France, Germany and Britain – which also signed the agreement – fix what he has called its flaws.