May 21, 2018
By Abdulquddus OKELE InvestAdvocate
Lagos (INVESTADVOCATE)-Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.95 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2018, according to the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS says the current figure shows a stronger growth when compared with the first quarter of 2017 which recorded a growth of -0.91 percent indicating an increase of 2.87 percent points.
“Compared to the preceding quarter, there was a decline of -0.16 percent points from 2.11 percent. Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was -13.40 percent,’the NBS affirmed.
This is coming on the heels of oil production estimates for the third and fourth quarters of 2017 been revised and oil GDP for those quarters been adjusted accordingly.
According to analysis from Cordros, a quick look at the breakdown of the GDP figure shows that the oil sector grew by 14.77 percent (compared to 11.20 percent in Q4-17 and -15.60 percent in Q1-17).
The NBS estimated crude oil production during the three months period to be 2.0mb/d, 0.05mb/d and 0.25mb/d higher than the 1.95mb/d and 1.75mb/d reported in Q4-17 and Q1-17 respectively. The sector contributed 9.61 percent of total GDP (vs. 7.35 percent and 8.53 percent in Q4-17 and the corresponding quarter of 2017 respectively) during the review period.
Cordros analysis says that output in the non-oil sector also expanded, growing by 0.76 percent y/y in Q1-18, 69 bps lower than the rate recorded in the final quarter of 2017 but 4 bps higher when compared to the growth rate achieved a year ago.
The non-oil sector contributed 90.39 percent to total GDP, (vs. 92.65 percent and 91.47 percent in the three months to December 2017 and Q1-17 respectively).
A breakdown of three of the biggest components of the GDP shows that Services contracted by 0.47 percent y/y (vs. 0.10 percent y/y in Q4-17 and 0.37 percent y/y in Q1-17).
Also, Agriculture grew by 3.0 percent y/y, 123 bps and 38 bps lower than growth rates recorded in Q4-17 and Q1-17 respectively. While manufacturing grew by 3.39 percent y/y – 326 bps and 203 bps higher than growth rates recorded in Q4-17 and Q1-17 respectively.
In terms of contribution, services, industries, and agriculture, respectively, accounted for 54.3 percent, 24.0 percent, and 21.7 percent of overall output growth.