Culled—Proshare
1/8/2018/Zedcrest Capital
*** Fed holds interest rates, says economy is growing at a ‘strong’ pace***
KEY INDICATORS
| Indicator | Value | Commentary |
| Inflation | 11.23% | As at July 23, 2018, 38bps down from 11.61% recorded in May 2018. |
| MPR | 14.00% | Next MPC meeting scheduled for September 24 & 25, 2018 |
| External Reserves | $47.16bn | As at July 30, 2018. A c.0.21% decrease from $47.26bn as at July 27, 2018. |
| Brent Crude | $72.57pb | As at August 1, 2018. A c.2.88% decrease from $74.72pb as at July 31, 2018 |
Bonds
The Bond market opened the month on a relatively quiet note, with yields compressing by c.3bps on average, following slight demand on the longer end of the curve (36s and 37s). On the mid-end of the curve, we witnessed slight profit taking on the 2027s, as market players showed preference for the higher yielding 2028s.
We expect the market to remain largely order-driven in the interim, with interests expected to remain largely focused on the relatively higher yielding bonds.
| FGN Bonds | |||
| Description | Bid (%) | Offer (%) | Day Change (%) |
| 15.54 13-Feb-20 | 13.26 | 12.82 | 0.00 |
| 14.50 15-Jul-21 | 13.60 | 13.31 | 0.00 |
| 16.39 27-Jan-22 | 13.67 | 13.29 | (0.01) |
| 14.20 14-Mar-24 | 13.86 | 13.54 | 0.00 |
| 12.50 22-Jan-26 | 14.11 | 14.02 | 0.01 |
| 16.29 17-Mar-27 | 13.98 | 13.92 | 0.02 |
| 13.98 23-Feb-28 | 14.28 | 14.23 | (0.02) |
| 12.15 18-Jul-34 | 14.18 | 14.05 | 0.02 |
| 12.40 18-Mar-36 | 14.17 | 14.12 | (0.02) |
| 16.2499 18-Apr-37 | 14.12 | 14.05 | (0.03) |
Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk
Treasury Bills
The T-bills market opened the month on a relatively quiet note, as market players shifted focus to the T-bills Primary Market Auction. Bids at the Auction were relatively more aggressive, with significant demand from market players especially on the 1-year bill which was oversubscribed by 175%.
The DMO consequently rolled over the total amount of maturing T-bills at slightly lower rates; -10bps and -19bs on the 182- and 364-day bills, while the 91-day bill remained unchanged from previous levels. The stop rates for the 91-, 182- and 364-day bills cleared at 10.00%, 10.40% and 11.30% respectively.
We expect the T-bills market to trade on a relatively quiet note tomorrow, as the CBN is expected to float an OMO auction to counter inflows from c.N324bn maturing OMO bills. We however expect slight bullish sentiments on the longer tenured bills from market players looking to cover some of their lost auction bids.
| Primary Market Auction Results (1 August 2018) | |||||||
| Tenor | Rate (%) | Offer (N’bn) | Sub (N’bn) | Sale (N’bn) | |||
| 91 days | 10.00 | 9.54 | 9.63 | 9.54 | |||
| 182 days | 10.40 | 69.56 | 69.64 | 69.56 | |||
| 364 days | 11.30 | 136.52 | 238.70 | 136.52 | |||
| Secondary Market Treasury Bills | |||||||
| Description | Bid (%) | Offer (%) | Day Change (%) | ||||
| 13-Sep-18 | 11.25 | 10.75 | (0.05) | ||||
| 4-Oct-18 | 10.25 | 9.75 | (0.10) | ||||
| 1-Nov-18 | 10.75 | 10.55 | 0.00 | ||||
| 6-Dec-18 | 12.00 | 11.80 | (0.10) | ||||
| 3-Jan-19 | 12.00 | 11.80 | (0.05) | ||||
| 14-Feb-19 | 12.08 | 12.00 | (0.02) | ||||
| 14-Mar-19 | 12.15 | 11.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 4-Apr-19 | 12.10 | 11.00 | 0.00 | ||||
| 18-Jul-19 | 11.35 | 11.10 | (0.05) | ||||
Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk
Money Market
Buoyant system liquidity via FAAC inflows of c.N360bn pushed interest rates down, as the Open Buy-Back (OBB) and Overnight (O/N) rates closed at 2.92% and 3.75% respectively. System liquidity which rose significantly higher to c.N496bn at the open of the day is estimated to remain relatively unchanged, as there were no significant outflows from the system.
We expect rates to remain relatively stable tomorrow, as the CBN is expected to float an OMO auction to manage the excess inflows from expected OMO T-bill maturities.
| Money Market Rates | ||
| Current (%) | Previous (%) | |
| Open Buy Back (OBB) | 2.92 | 8.58 |
| Overnight (O/N) | 3.75 | 9.58 |
Source: FMDQ, Zedcrest Research
FX Market
The Naira remained stable at the interbank market, closing at N305.90/$. It however appreciated slightly at the I&E FX window, closing at N362.33/$ (c.0.12% stronger from N362.40/$ previously). At the parallel market, the USD transfer rate appreciated by 50k, closing at N361.00/$ (0.15% up from N361.50/$ previously) while the cash rate traded flat at N358.40/$.
| FX Market | ||
| Current (N/$) | Previous ( N/$) | |
| CBN Spot | 305.90 | 305.90 |
| CBN SMIS | 330.00 | 330.00 |
| I&E FX Window | 362.33 | 362.40 |
| Cash Market | 358.40 | 358.40 |
| Transfer Market | 361.00 | 361.50 |
Source: CBN, FMDQ, REXEL BDC
Eurobonds
The NGERIA Sovereigns opened the new month continuing the bearish trend from the previous trading session, as yields inched up by an average of c.13bps across the curve. This came as some market players opted to cut down on risk in anticipation of the FOMC interest rate decision.
The FED kept rates unchanged as was widely anticipated, whilst also noting the strong growth in the US economy. The uptick in the US 10-year yield consequently thinned out at c.3.00%.
Activities in the NGERIA Corps space slowed a bit, as some tickers reversed previous gains. Pockets of demand were however witnessed on some select tickers, such as the ACCESS 21s and SEPLLN 23s.
