Culled—-Proshare
5/9/2018/Zedcrest Capital
KEY INDICATORS
| Indicator | Value | Commentary |
| Inflation | 11.14% | As at August 15, 2018, 9bps down from 11.23% recorded in June 2018. |
| MPR | 14.00% | Next MPC meeting scheduled for September 24 & 25, 2018 |
| External Reserves | $45.55bn | As at September 3, 2018. A c.0.17% decrease from $45.63bn on Sept. 3, 2018 |
| Brent Crude | $77.27pb | As at September 4, 2018. A c.1.42% decrease, from $78.38pb on Sept. 4, 2018 |
Bonds
The bond market traded with bullish sentiments today, as demand from local and off-shore players were witnessed across the mid- to long-end of the curve causing average yields to compress by c.4bps to close at 15.11%. Major gainers of the day were the 2027s & 2028s at the mid-end and 2037s at the long-end of the curve.
We expect the market to remain be order driven as investors pick out attractive yields offered. We however remain wary of external factors, including weak EM sentiments as this could provide risk-off investors with opportunities to exit positions on local bonds.
| Secondary Market Bonds | |||
| Description | Bid (%) | Offer (%) | Day Change (%) |
| 15.54 13-Feb-20 | 14.48 | 14.08 | 0.00 |
| 14.50 15-Jul-21 | 15.01 | 14.92 | 0.00 |
| 16.39 27-Jan-22 | 14.64 | 14.25 | (0.07) |
| 14.20 14-Mar-24 | 15.03 | 14.86 | 0.01 |
| 12.50 22-Jan-26 | 15.24 | 15.21 | (0.07) |
| 16.29 17-Mar-27 | 15.24 | 15.16 | (0.04) |
| 13.98 23-Feb-28 | 15.25 | 15.16 | (0.07) |
| 12.15 18-Jul-34 | 15.42 | 15.33 | (0.03) |
| 12.40 18-Mar-36 | 15.39 | 15.25 | (0.01) |
| 16.2499 18-Apr-37 | 15.39 | 15.22 | (0.07) |
Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk
Treasury Bills
The T-bills market continued to trade bullish supported by buoyant system liquidity. Yields across the NTBills curve compressed by c.13bps to close at 11.51% on the average.
The CBN floated a second OMO auction this week, expanding its offering to three maturities as it looked to aggressive attack excess liquidity. The Apex bank sold a total of N137.59bn across the 64-. 127- and 190-day maturities with stop rates were cut at 10.00%. 11.50% and 12.15% respectively.
We expect bullish sentiments on T-bills to remain as system liquidity levels remain high. We also expect the CBN to maintain its stance on OMO rates at subsequent auctions, with another expected tomorrow.
| OMO Auction Result | ||||
| Tenor | Rate (%) | Offer (N’bn) | Sub (N’bn) | Sale (N’bn) |
| 64 days | 10.00 | 100.00 | 9.80 | 7.50 |
| 127 days | 11.50 | 100.00 | 10.05 | 4.00 |
| 190 days | 12.15 | 200.00 | 137.09 | 126.09 |
Secondary Market Treasury Bills
| Description | Bid (%) | Offer (%) | Day Change (%) |
| 13-Sep-18 | 10.05 | 7.45 | 0.80 |
| 4-Oct-18 | 10.95 | 10.35 | (0.05) |
| 1-Nov-18 | 10.95 | 10.55 | (0.30) |
| 6-Dec-18 | 11.45 | 11.25 | (0.05) |
| 3-Jan-19 | 11.90 | 11.55 | (0.40) |
| 14-Feb-19 | 12.30 | 12.10 | 0.00 |
| 14-Mar-19 | 12.15 | 12.00 | (0.10) |
| 4-Apr-19 | 11.75 | 11.45 | (1.05) |
| 18-Jul-19 | 12.05 | 11.50 | (0.05) |
Source: Zedcrest Dealing Desk
Money Market
Interbank lending rates remained relatively stable amidst buoyant System liquidity, despite another OMO auction sale by the CBN. The OBB and OVN closed at 3.17% and 4.00% respectively, as System liquidity is estimated to close today at c.N509.44bn net positive.
The CBN sold a total of N137.59bn at an OMO auction today as it continues its strategy to manage liquidity levels.
With inflows from OMO maturities of N294.52bn expected tomorrow, we expect the CBN to float an OMO auction for the third time week to counter the maturities. We thus rates to remain relatively stable.
| Money Market Rates | ||
| Current (%) | Previous (%) | |
| Open Buy Back (OBB) | 3.17 | 3.08 |
| Overnight (O/N) | 4.00 | 3.92 |
Source: FMDQ, Zedcrest Research
FX Market
The Naira/USD rate traded stable at the interbank, closing at N306.20/$ (Unchanged DoD). At the I&E FX window, a total of $408.08mn was traded in 292 deals, with rates ranging between N356.00/$ – N364.00/$. The NAFEX closing rate depreciated by 0.26% to N363.04/$ from N362.11/$ previously.
At the parallel market, the cash rate remained stable at N359.20/$, while the transfer rate closed 0.14% lower at N362.00/$.
| FX Market | ||
| Current (N/$) | Previous ( N/$) | |
| CBN Spot | 306.20 | 306.20 |
| CBN SMIS | 358.87 | 357.95 |
| I&E FX Window | 363.04 | 362.11 |
| Cash Market | 359.20 | 359.20 |
| Transfer Market | 362.00 | 361.50 |
Source: CBN, FMDQ, REXEL BDC
Eurobonds
The NGERIA Sovereigns continued to weaken as sell-offs continued across the curve. Today’s trade session saw yields tick up 10bps, to close at 7.56% on the average across the curve.
The NGERIA Corps showed more resilience than the Sovs, as demand interests were witnessed across the trading tickers. Investors looked for short duration, with the ACCESS 2021 Subs and FBNNL 2021s the biggest gainers of the day as yields compressed by c.150bps & 165bps respectively.
