December 28, 2018/CBN
1.0 Highlights
The highlights of the Q4 2018 Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) are as follows:
- Overall outlook of consumers was positive in the current quarter, as more consumers were optimistic in their outlook. Consumers also had a positive outlook for the next quarter and the next 12 months.
- Majority of consumers nationwide believe that the next 12 months would not be an ideal time to purchase big-ticket items like motor vehicles and house & lot.
- Most respondents expected that the naira will appreciate, inflation rate will rise, and borrowing rate will rise in the next 12 months
- The major drivers of the expected upward movement in prices are: rent, food & other household needs, telecommunication, electricity, debt payment and purchase of house.
2.0 Introduction
The Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for Q4 2018 was conducted during the period November 24 – December 7, 2018, covering a sample size of 1,770 households drawn from 207 Enumeration Areas (EAs) across the country, with a response rate of 99.2 percent.
Respondents’ distribution by educational attainment showed that 22.0 per cent had university education, 22.9 per cent had higher non-university education, while 29.1 per cent had senior secondary school education.
Respondents with junior secondary and primary school education accounted for 16.2 and 6.7 per cent, respectively, while those with no formal education accounted for the balance of 3.1 per cent.
3.0 Consumer Outlook
3.1 Consumer Overall Confidence Index The consumers’ overall confidence outlook improved in Q4 2018, as more consumers were optimistic in their outlook.
The index at 9.7 points was 8.7 points higher than the index in the corresponding period of 2017. Respondents attributed this favourable outlook to improved family income, family financial situation and economic condition.
The consumer outlooks for the next quarter and next 12 months were positive at 33.2 and 28.4 points, respectively (Fig. 1).
This outlook could be attributed to the expected increase in net household income, the anticipated improvement in Nigeria’s economic conditions and expectations to save a bit and/or have plenty over savings in the next 12 months (Table 1).