January 18, 2020/NBS
Highlights:
Between July and September 2019(Jan 2018=100):
- The All commodity group import index grew by 2.48%. This was mainly driven by increases in prices of Base metals and articles of base metals; Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica, ceramic; and Plastic, rubber and articles thereof.
- The All commodity group export price index increased marginally by 0.12% due to increases in the prices of Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins etc.; saddlery, Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco, as well as Base metals and articles of base metals.
- The All products terms of trade (TOT) index decreased by 2.33% as a result of a significant decrease in the prices of Vegetable products.
- The All region group export index rose by 0.12% mainly due to marginal increases in the export prices to Africa, America and Europe.
- The All region group import index increased by 2.48% due to increases in import prices from Africa and Europe.
- The All region terms of trade on average decreased by 2.33% due to lower export prices to Africa and Europe.
- The major export and import markets of Nigeria in Q3 2019 were India, China, Spain, the United States and the Netherlands.
- The major export to these countries were crude petroleum and natural gas.
- The major imports from these countries were Motor spirits, Used Vehicles and motor cycles.
Terms Of Trade
The terms of trade (TOT) represent the ratio between a country’s export prices and its import prices. The ratio is calculated by dividing the price of the exports by the price of the imports, usually in percentage terms. An increase in the terms of trade between two periods (or when TOT is greater than 100%) means that the value of exports is increasing relative to the value of imports, and the country can afford more imports for the same value of exports. For example, an increase in the price of oil between two periods (with oil production remaining the same) is likely to increase or improve the terms of trade for Nigeria and vice versa. The TOT is recorded as an index, and can be used as an indicator of an economy’s health.
Commodity Price Index July To September, 2019
All commodity group import index (Table 1)
The All commodity group import index grew by 2.48% on average between July and September. This was mainly driven by increases in prices of Base metals and articles of base metals; Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica, ceramic; and Plastic, rubber and articles thereof. The index rose 1.43% in September after increasing 1.05% the previous month.
The main drivers of the change between July and August were Paper making material; paper and paperboard (7.65%), Textiles and textile articles (6.24%) and Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco (5.99%). This was partially offset by Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sunshades, whips (-5.49%), Vegetable products (-5.04%) and Wood and articles of wood, wood charcoal and articles (-4.17%).
In September, 2019 the all commodity group import index rose 1.43%. This was driven by Base metals and articles of base metals (15.81%), Vegetable products (7.94%) and Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica, ceramic (7.33%). These increases were offset by Textiles and textile articles (-8.28%), Paper making material; paper and paperboard(-8.07%) and Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco (-7.92%).
- All commodity group export index (Table 2)
The All commodity group export price index increased marginally by 0.12% between July and September. This was attributed to increases in the prices of Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins etc.; saddlery, Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco, as well as Base metals and articles of base metals. The monthly changes showed that the All commodity export index declined 0.12% in September, after increasing 0.24% in August.
The 0.24% increase in August was driven by Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins etc.; saddlery (15.14%), Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar; tobacco (12.86%) and Plastic, rubber and articles (10.45%). This was offset by decreases in Vegetable products (-13.67%) and Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sunshades, whips etc (-6.63%).
The monthly change in September of All commodity export index stood at -0.12%.This decrease was mainly due to decreases in the prices of Plastic, rubber and articles thereof (-13.32%), Live animals; animal products (-6.94%) and Vegetable products (-5.82%).
Terms of Trade by commodity (2018 Jan=100) (Table 3)
The All commodity group terms of trade stood at 103.39 in July, 102.56 in August and 100.99 in September.
This represents a decrease of 0.80% in August and 1.53% in September. On average, the terms of trade decreased by 2.33%. This decrease is explained by fall in the prices of vegetable products (-21.84%), Plastic rubber and articles (-8.52%) and live animals; animal products (-8.46%).
All Region Group export index (Table 4)
The All region group export index, on average, rose by 0.12% between July and September. This was due to marginal increases in the export prices to Africa, America and Europe. The month on month changes showed that the All region group export index decreased (-0.12%) in September after increasing 0.24% in August.
The trend of the All Region export index is attributed to lower export prices to all the regions during the period under review.
Between August and September, 2019 the monthly change in the All Region export index stood at -0.12. This is explained by decreases in export prices to America (-0.06%), Asia (-0.28%) and Europe (-0.09%).
All Region Group import index (Table 5)
The All Region group import index on average increased by 2.48%, following an increase of 1.05% in August and 1.43% in September.
Import prices from the All Region group rose 1.05% in August. This was mainly due to increases in import prices from America (16.93) and Africa (14.54).
The increase recorded in the All region import index in September is attributed to increases in import prices in Asia( 2.80%), Europe (4.83%) Oceania (4.76%) and Africa (1.27%).
Terms of Trade by Regions [2018 Jan=100] (Table 6)
The All Region group terms of trade stood at 103.39 in July, 102.56 in August and 100.99 in September. This represents decreases of 0.8% in August and 1.53% in September. On average, the terms of trade decreased by 2.33% between July and September. This decrease is explained mainly by decreases in the prices of Trade with Africa (-13.90%) and Europe (-5.21%).
Merchandise Trade By Top Five Partners And By Major Commodities (N’million) Q3, 2019
India remained the largest export market of Nigeria, in the third quarter of 2019. Export trade to India was valued at N775.70 billion, accounting for 14.67% of total exports. The largest export commodity to India was crude oil (N694.89 billion). This was followed by Natural gas liquidified (N77.02 billion), Aluminum alloys, unwrought (N0.84 billion), Cathodes and sections of cathodes of refined copper (N0.47 billion) and others. On the other hand, Nigeria imported motorcycles and cycles, imported CKD by established manufacturers >50cc<=250cc (N81.82billion), Kerosene Jet fuel (N13.42billion), Antibiotics n.e.s (N10.19 billion) and others from India during the period under review.
- CHINA
China is a major Trading partner of Nigeria. In Q3 2019, Nigeria’s export trade with China was dominated by crude oil valued at N129.29 billion, followed by Natural Gas liquidified (N22.47 billion), Dredgers (N7.87billion) and others. In terms of imports, Machines for reception; Chassis fitted with engines for assembly plants, of vehicles; as well as Imported motorcycles and cycles, imported CKD by established manufacturers >50cc<=250cc valued at N50.56 billion, N50.42 billion and N35.66billion respectively were imported from China.
- SPAIN
Nigeria’s major export to Spain in Q3 2919 was Crude oil valued at N377.79billion. This was followed closely by Natural liquidified gas worth N70.34 billion. Other products were Leather further prepared after tanning valued at N4.12billion. During the quarter, motor spirits worth N56.67billion was imported from Spain. Other imports were Mixed alkylbenzenes and mixed alkylanaphthalenes, (N6.17billion) as well as Petroleum bitumen (N4.64 billion).
- The United States
In Q3 2019, Nigeria exported N329.81billion worth of Crude oil to the United states of America. Other major export commodities included False beards, eyebrows and eyelashes, etc, of synthetic fibres valued at N0.46 billion and Sesamum seeds, whether or not broken N0.34 billion. In terms of imports, the main commodities imported were Used Vehicles, with diesel or semi diesel engine, of cylinder capacity >2500cc, amounting to N120.86billion of total imports during the period under review. Other products imported were Other refrigerated vessels, other than those of subheading 8901.20 (N38.41billion) , Durum wheat , seed (N26.75billion), Durum wheat (Not in seeds) (N22.61billion) and others.
- The Netherlands
In Q3 2019, Nigeria exported N485.73 billion worth of Crude oil to the Netherlands. Other major export commodities were Other petroleum gases etc in gaseous state valued at N9.40 billion and Good Fermented Nigerian Cocoa Beans N6.18 billion. In terms of imports, the main commodities imported were motor Spirits, which amounted to N135.03 billion. Other products imported were Other Medicaments covered in the heading not specified or included (N33.91billion), Gas oils (N31.63billion), Kerosene type jet fuel (N6.57 billion) and others.
