February 24, 2020/Cordros Update
Nigeria’s economic growth strengthened in Q4-2019, driven by sharper than expected growth in non-oil GDP. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP grew by 2.55% y/y (vs. 2.28% y/y in Q3-19), the highest quarterly figure since Q3-2015, and higher than Cordros’ and Bloomberg consensus estimates of 2.36% and 2.20%, respectively. For 2019FY, the economy expanded by 2.27% y/y (vs. 1.19% y/y in 2018FY).
According to the breakdown, the non-oil sector continued to show resilience, expanding by 2.26%y/y (vs. 1.85% y/y in Q3-19), with faster growth recorded across all sub-components, save for Trade which remained in recession. For clarity, the Services GDP (+4.01% y/y) led the pack, followed by the Agriculture (+2.31% y/y), and Manufacturing (+1.24% y/y) sectors.
The oil sector also expanded, albeit at a slower pace of 6.36% y/y (vs. 6.49% y/y in Q3-19) on lower crude production (+4.71% y/y vs Q3-19: 5.15% y/y), with the NBS estimating production during the three-month period to be 2.00mb/d (vs. 2.03 mb/d in Q3-19).