April 21, 2020/Cordros Report

For the seventh consecutive month, Nigeria’s headline inflation rose at a faster pace, expanding by 6bps in March 2020 to 12.26% y/y (February: 12.20% y/y). This is the highest level of price growth since April 2018. We highlight that the outturn is 6bps higher than the prior month’s number and Cordros’ estimate (12.20% y/y). On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation increased slightly by 5bps to 0.84%.

Food inflation rose to 14.98% y/y in the review period, we believe the frontloading of major food items, that preceded the great lockdown must have negatively influenced the food basket. Specifically, the rise was caused by increases in prices of Bread and Cereals, Fish, Potatoes, Yam and other tubers, Oils and fats, Vegetables, and Fruits. Compared to February 2020, food inflation expanded by 7bps, to 0.94% m/m.

Elsewhere, core inflation was up by 30bps to 9.73%. Pressures were most significant in the prices of Passenger transport by air, Tobacco, Household textiles, Major household appliances, Domestic services, and household services, Pharmaceutical products, Maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, Water supply, and Catering services. On a month-on-month basis, the core index was up by 7bps 0.80%.