November 11, 2021/CSL Research
Recently, at a meeting of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) presided by the Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the National Development Plan (NDP) for 2021 – 2025 was approved. The plan replaces the former Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) that has guided economic planning since 2017. The NDP is a subcomponent of the Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) which according to the Minister of State for Budget and National Planning, would guide government policies, programs and projects, and private sector operations towards realizing the Nigeria Agenda 2050.
Over time, the growth and recovery conversation has taken center stage in Nigeria. Many parties hold different views regarding the concepts. Since the ERGP initiative itself was in response to the economic recession of 2015 through Q2 2017, the conversation around recovery is legitimate. The recession in 2015, just like in 2020, were the results of an economy that has become increasingly vulnerable to external shocks. The complete dependence on oil which leaves us vulnerable to the international prices of crude oil and low local productivity which has since created significant dependence on imported commodities for domestic consumption are two major issues restricting growth. These, amidst declining household income and eroding personal purchasing power have left many people below the poverty line.
For more than a decade, the Nigerian government has been initiating several economic recovery plans to stimulate the economy and diversify the country’s revenue base. The 7- point agenda (2007) during the late Umar Musa Yar’Adua administration, the Vision 20-20 (2010), National Industrial Revolution Plan (2014) and the Nigeria Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan (2014) of the Goodluck Jonathan administration are a few. To change the national economic trajectory, the current administration introduced the Strategic Implementation Plan (SIP) for the 2016 Budget of Change to put the economy on the path to sustainable growth and development. The most recent was the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). However, despite the many efforts, the current realities remain a far cry from projections. Failure of these plans is mainly due to issues like insecurity which has hampered foreign direct investment, infrastructure decadence, climatic changes that have encumbered agricultural yields, and uncertainties in government policies.
We laud any initiative by the government focused on recovery and growth. The NDP focuses on growth and development, infrastructure, public administration, human capital development, social and regional development, all issues pertinent for any meaningful growth. That said, the complete implementation and control of the plan should be prioritized if it is to be successful. In addition, we reiterate that fixing the insecurity issues in the country should be of utmost priority if there would be a significant mobilization of local and foreign capital, which forms the fulcrum of the NDP.
