January 17, 2022/Cordros Update

Nigeria’s headline inflation snapped an eighth consecutive month of moderation, as it expanded by 23bps in December 2021 to 15.63% y/y (November 2021: 15.40% y/y). The outturn is 83bps higher than Cordros and Bloomberg’s median consensus estimate (14.8% y/y). Month-on-Month, headline inflation rose by 74bps to 1.82% – the highest since May 2017 (1.88% m/m).

Food inflation reversed its eighth consecutive month of deceleration, rising by 16bps to 17.37% y/y in the period under review. Notably, the highest price increases were recorded in Bread and cereals, Food products, Meat, Fish, Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Soft drinks and fruit. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation expanded by 2.19%, relative to the 1.07% recorded in the previous month.

Elsewhere, core inflation was up slightly by 2bps to 13.87% y/y. Pressures were most significant in the prices of Gas, Liquid fuel, Wine, Actual and imputed rentals for housing, Narcotics, Tobacco, Spirit, Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing, Garments, Shoes and other footwear and Clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories. Compared to the previous month, the core index moderated by 14bps to 1.12%, relative to the 1.26% recorded in the previous month.