September 2, 2022/United Capital Research

Anglophone West Africa
Nigeria

• According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 3.5% y/y in Q2-2022, indicating a 44bps increase compared to 3.1% in Q1-2022 and a 147bps decrease from the 5.0% y/y growth in Q2-2021. Notably, the non-oil sector drove the growth contributing 93.7% of the GDP due to increased Telecommunication, Trade, Financial Services, Agriculture and Manufacturing sub-sectors.
• In addition, the Federal Government received N1.1tn from indirect taxes in the H1-2022, representing a 10.3% increase from N984.3bn obtained in H1-2021. Indirect taxes are taxes paid to the government by a producer or retailer and later passed on to the consumer. They include value-added taxes, customs or import duties, among others.
• According to the Capital Importation data released by the NBS, Nigeria attracted a sum of $1.5bn as capital inflows in Q2-2022, 2.4% q/q lower than $1.6bn in Q1-2022. On an annual basis, the capital inflow increased by 75.3% y/y compared to $875.6mn recorded in Q2-2021. Foreign portfolio investment contributed the bulk of the influx, which accounted for 49.3%, while other investments and foreign direct investment accounted for 41.1% and 9.6%, respectively.
• According to The Central Bank of Nigeria, oil revenue declined by 29.0% q/q to N790.0bn in Q1-2022 from N1.1tn the previous quarter and 17.1% y/y lower than its N956.0bn print in Q1-2021. The decline in revenue was due to low production levels on the back of oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the nation.
• The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation announced its plan to adopt the Saudi Aramco model of video surveillance to monitor its pipelines in the Niger Delta, all in its drive to curb oil theft. The company further disclosed that it would outsource its operations and maintenance contracts upon completion of the ongoing rehabilitation of its refineries.

Ghana

• According to the Ghana Health Service, the country has contained its first outbreak of the Marburg virus disease, and no new cases have been reported in the last six weeks. The outbreak was first announced in Jun-2022 when three cases of the highly infectious disease were confirmed. However, the country must wait for two additional weeks before the outbreak can be declared over.
• The Ghanaian Central Bank plans to buy $500.0mn of foreign exchange directly from international mining and oil companies by the end of 2022 as the apex bank seeks to shore up its reserves.
• Thelo DB, a South African consortium, has signed a 25-year management agreement of $3.2bn to develop Ghana’s Western Railway Line for passengers and cargo. The project is set to improve the transportation of bauxite, manganese and other commodities carried mainly by the road along the Western corridor

 
Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Ivory Coast

• According to Bloomberg data, Ivory Coast farmers sent 10,341 tons of cocoa to local ports last week, with Olam International and Cargill remaining the top buyers of cocoa from the world’s top cocoa producer.
• According to Bloomberg, Cocoa farmers in Ivory Coast, the world’s top producer, currently lack fertiliser for their plants to take advantage of the gap in torrential rains, which has given them access to farms ahead of the primary harvesting season.

Mali

• According to media reports, the U.K. government sets out to support Mali, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Chad and Niger with c.£38.0.mn ($44.0mn) in humanitarian funding to combat the impact of growing instability and violent extremism across West Africa’s Sahel Region.
• According to Vicky Ford, Minister for Africa, the funding will provide food and water to about one million people, among the millions unimaginably suffering from hunger and malnutrition.

East Africa
Kenya

• As released by the Kenya Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), August inflation data rose to 8.5%y/y from 8.3% y/y in July. Inflation numbers remain above the government’s target band of 2.5% to 7.5%
• Geoffrey Odundo, the Chief Executive Officer of the Nairobi Stock Exchange, revealed that the local bourse would see its first main-market segment listing in the last three years before the end of December.
• The Kenyan shilling depreciated by historical levels to KES120.05/25 on the last day of August due to uncertainties about the supreme court of petitions challenging the declared election of William Ruto as president.

Rwanda

• The government has proposed a new tax to double the taxable income cap from income above Rwf30,000 monthly to Rwf60,000. However, the Labour unions are lobbying to increase the cap to at least Rwf100,000.
• To boost the country’s wood industry, the Rwanda Forestry Authority (RFA) selected five tree species with high economic value as the government plans to plant 30.0mn tree seedlings in the 2022/23 fiscal year.
• Coffee bean prices remained unchanged w/w at $6.60/kg. The country exported 213.12 metric tonnes of coffee for $1.42mn compared to 299.56 tons sold for $2.0mn the previous week.

 
Tanzania

• Tanzania exempts the 35.0% levy on imported raw materials and inputs used for the manufacture of wire products following successful lobbying by industry players.- less than a month after the country’s common external Tariff came into fruition.
• Reports from Tanzania’s agricultural ministry revealed that the nation’s cocoa exports stood at $1.8mn from Jul-2022 to the 8th of Aug-2022, with 1.1 metric tonnes of cocoa beans exported at an average price of TZS4,023.8/kg.
• Vodacom Tanzania, a telecom company, is set to launch the country’s first 5G technology, with rollouts to start in Nov-2022.

 
Uganda

• The Uganda Bureau of Statistics revealed that food and fuel prices drove the nation’s headline inflation for the fourth consecutive month, printing at 9.0% y/y in Aug-2022 from 7.9% y/y in Jul-2022. The inflation number is still above the nation’s medium-term target of 5.0%.
• The Federal Government (F.G.) has repealed the 5.0%  export levy on refined Gold that led to a 30.0% y/y decline in shipments from the nation to $300.4mn in Jul-2022.

 
Southern Africa
Angola

• According to a final loading program seen by Bloomberg, Angola is scheduled to export approximately 1mn- bbl./d of crude in Oct-22, the lowest level of any month since Jul-21.
• In a press note from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Angola and the U.S. are in talks to launch the Atlantic Basin partnership, scheduled for Sept-22 in Lisbon, Portugal.

South Africa

• According to the Parliamentary Monitoring Group, the cabinet has approved new bills, which have subsequently been submitted to parliament, including new legislation focusing on financial crime. They are aimed to fill regulation gaps and make doing business easier in South Africa.
• The finance minister tabled the Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Terrorism Financing Amendment Bill to improve the country’s adherence to international best practices in combating financial crime. The bill also amends other legislation, including the Companies Act, Trust Property Control Act and Financial Sector Regulation Act.

 
Zambia

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) board has approved a 38-month $1.3bn credit facility for Zambia, enabling the country to restructure its $17.0bn foreign-currency external debt and restore fiscal sustainability. The facility will allow an immediate disbursement of $185.0mn.
• The Energy Regulatory Board (ERB) has announced price changes effective 02-Sept. Petrol would sell at ZK21.54 (previously ZK23.12), while diesel would sell at ZK23.12 (Previously ZK24.87).
• Through the Zambia Statistics Agency (Zamstats), the Government of Zambia is conducting its sixth Population and Housing Census. It is set to conclude the census exercise by Sept-22.

 
Zimbabwe

• The President of Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa, commissioned the US$300.0mn Beitbridge Border Post modernisation and upgrade project, in line with the NDS1’s Vision 2030. The Beitbridge-Bulawayo-Victoria Falls highway is the corridor that connects South Africa and Zambia, as Beitbridge is the busiest inland port in the SADC.
• Additionally, there is reported progress on upgrading the Harare-Beitbridge highway, even as the entire 340.0km stretch is now open to traffic.
• Zimbabwe has tabled a new Finance Bill 2022, which doubles mineral royalties for platinum miners to 5.0%. This implies that royalties must now be paid 50:50 in local and foreign currency. The regulation also covers money transfer companies, previously exempted from mobile money and electronic transaction tax.
• Also, the withholding tax rate for cross-border traders without tax certificates has been raised from 10.0% to 30.0%. Platinum miners with plants in Zimbabwe capable of producing platinum group concentrates will also pay a beneficiation levy on beneficiated exports.
• The finance minister, Mthuli Ncube, has resisted pressure from the National Assembly for an upward review of the annual tax-free threshold to US$300.0 or the local currency equivalent. The Treasury had hiked the threshold to ZW$50,000/m in Jun-22 but is concerned that further hikes will severely impact tax revenue. Lawmakers propose that the threshold be close to the poverty datum line of $300.0 amid soaring inflation.

Central Africa
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• An Africa-focused hydro-power start-up, MyHydro, teamed up with a Californian maker of ‘fish-safe’ turbines, Natel Energy, to solve electricity supply problems in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
• A memorandum of understanding with the Congolese government was signed by MyHydro, to develop 36 small hydro projects in DRC, where only about 10.0% of its 100.0m people have access to electricity. In addition, the plants will use turbines made by Natel Energy.
• Nairobi-listed KCB Group agreed to acquire a majority stake in one of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s biggest lenders, Trust Merchant Bank S.A., to open new ground for the Kenyan bank in DRC, which currently operates in six East African Nations.
• Furthermore, KCB Group will pay an undisclosed amount for 85.0% of Trust Merchant Bank S.A. The transaction is expected to be concluded before the end of Q3-2022, thus increasing KCB’s asset base to 1.5tn shillings ($12.6bn).
• According to scientists from universities in the UK, Congo, and the Congo Republic, the central Congo Basin peatlands cover approximately 36.0% of the world’s tropical peatland area and store approximately 28.0% of the world’s tropical peat carbon.

Gabon

• According to loading schedules seen by Bloomberg, Gabon plans to increase the loading of Rabi Light Crude (very low in sulphur) to 78,000bpd in Sept-2022, the highest level observed since Feb-2012, from 45,000 BPD in Aug-2022.