February 15, 2023/CSL Research
According to a report by the Punch newspaper, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) insists that the 2023 general elections will not be postponed. The electoral body took to its social media platforms to debunk a publication it said was fake news, claiming that INEC might postpone the forthcoming elections by one or two weeks. Telling Nigerians to disregard the fake publication, INEC said the 2023 elections will hold as scheduled. INEC has over time maintained that despite the challenges facing both the commission and the country, the elections will be held as planned.
With less than two weeks to the 2023 general elections, there have been speculations of a postponement to the dates of the elections given the barrage of socio-economic problems the country is currently facing. From rising Insecurity to Naira scarcity and to fuel scarcity, many believe that going on with the elections under these conditions will likely result in low voter turnout. Insecurity alone remains a major threat, with the rise in attacks on INEC facilities. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has recorded not less than 20 attacks on its facilities across 15 states with the southeast being the most affected region. Although the facilities are said to be well guarded, the criminal elements involved in these nefarious activities generally operate without any challenge from security forces.
The attacks on INEC facilities are on the back of increased regional agitations which has intensified speculations that it would be difficult to conduct elections in some parts of the country, particularly the southeast and the northwest. Also, the increased violence witnessed at political rallies and the rise in the use of thugs by state governors to prevent opposition parties from mounting campaign materials and conducting rallies in their domain continue to fuel tensions in the country. Lastly, the Naira scarcity brought about by the redesign of the Naira and the lingering fuel scarcity are two situations that could increase voter apathy either through increased difficulty in transporting to various polling units or through a general sense of frustration and hopelessness.
Despite bold talks by INEC, we believe the barrage of socio-economic problems the country currently faces presents a challenge for a free and fair election to be conducted and could lead to postponement of the forthcoming elections. The state of insecurity in Nigeria constitutes a serious threat to the conduct of credible elections, as the security of electoral officials and election materials cannot be guaranteed in places with heightened security tensions. Moreover, rising insecurity will deter high voter turnout unless the security forces are prepared to rise to the challenge of safeguarding the lives of voters and INEC officials and this must be seen now by ensuring that campaigns and rallies are carried out without threat to lives and property.
