July 28, 2023/United Capital Research

Anglophone West Africa
Nigeria

• CBN raises interest rate to 18.75%

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria has voted to increase the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 18.50 per cent to 18.75 per cent. In addition, the committee voted to adjust the asymmetric corridor at +100 and -300 basis points around the MPR.
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• IMF retains Nigeria’s economic growth forecast at 3.2%

The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has retained its 3.2 forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2023. Meanwhile, the IMF lowered its forecast for Sub-Saharan economic growth in 2023 by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5 per cent. The Fund, however, raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5 per cent.
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• H1’23: Foreign investment in stock market falls 40.4% to N145.1bn

Foreign investment into the stock market, Nigerian Exchange Limited, fell   Year on Year, (YoY) by 40.4% to N145.08 billion in the first half, HI’23 from   N243.48 billion in H1’22. The decline reflects low investors’ confidence in the Nigerian economy, driven by prolonged Foreign Exchange, FX scarcity as well as uncertainties building up to the 2023 elections.
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• Net forex inflow into the economy falls 2% to $7.28bn

Net foreign exchange (forex) inflow into the economy fell year-on-year (YoY) by 2.4 percent to $7.28 billion in the first quarter of the year (Q1’23) from $7.46 billion in Q1’22 reflecting challenges in the external sector of the economy.
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• Petrol imports from Russia rises by 84%

Nigeria’s petrol imports from Russia have increased by 84 per cent in one year to 3.8 million litres (24,000 barrels) in 2023 from 558,300 litres (3,700 barrels) in 2022, data obtained from Argus West Africa Oil on Nigeria’s gasoline, the European trade overview has shown. Russia has been exploring other markets after the European Union, the UK, and the United States placed embargoes on its oil because of the invasion of Ukraine.
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Ghana

• Ghana surprises markets with hike as inflation seen lingering

Ghana’s Central Bank surprised financial markets by raising borrowing cost to a record high to speed up a deceleration in inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee lifted the rate to 30% from 29.5%.
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• Ghana energy sector debt could exceed $8b in two years

A recent World Bank report on Ghana has warned that in two years, by 2025, if no actions are taken to address the issues, the country’s energy sector arrears could exceed $8 billion. The country is currently overburdened by a public debt profile exceeding 80 per cent of GDP.
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• BoG builds $1bn reserves in 6 months

Ghana’s Central Bank surprised financial markets by raising borrowing cost to a record high to speed up a deceleration in inflation. The monetary policy committee lifted the rate to 30% from 29.5%.
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• Banks submit re-capitalisation plans — BoG

THE Central Bank says all banks whose capital were affected by the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme have complied with the directive to submit their recapilisation plans ahead of the September deadline set out under the IMF programme.
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Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)
Senegal

• Senegal aims for $5 billion in outstanding loans by 2028, setting ambitious targets for SME financing

With the goal of reaching CFA3,000 billion ($5 billion) in outstanding loans by 2028, Senegal aims to empower and uplift its small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for accelerated growth and economic prosperity. This is set to elevate the overall credit share of SMEs from the current 9% to 25% over the next few years. 
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• UMOA-Titres: Senegal raises 32 billion CFA Francs in the market, over $1 billion mobilized in 2023

The amount raised will be used to cover expenses planned in the national budget. This year, the country has already raised at least 707 billion CFA francs in this market segment managed by UMOA-Titres. Initially seeking 30 billion CFA francs (approximately $50.6 million) in the public securities market through an auction organized by Umoa-titres, Senegal successfully raised 32.96 billion CFA francs.
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East Africa
Kenya

• Kenya debt costs take biggest portion of tax-income in 10 years.

Kenya’s debt-service costs took up 59% of the nation’s tax income in the fiscal year ended June, the highest proportion in more than a decade.
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• East Africa to be continent’s fastest growing region, AfDB says

East Africa’s economic expansion will outpace other regions on the continent this year and the next, as it regains pre-pandemic momentum, according to the African Development Bank.
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Rwanda

• Rwanda poised to meet U.S.$1.5bn mineral export target

Rwanda’s mineral export earnings reached $609 million (over Rwf716 billion) in the first six months of 2023, according to the regulator of the country’s mining sector. Mineral export revenues have increased from $71 million in 2010 to over $772million in 2022. The government targets $1.5 billion in annual mineral export revenues by 2024.
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• Rwanda April-June gold export sales climb 59.0% q/q to $302.7m.

The nation shipped 4,696 kg of gold in the second quarter, Rwanda Mines, Petroleum and Gas Board says on its website. It exported $27.8 million of coltan, $18.8 million of cassiterite and $8.49 million of wolfram.
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Tanzania

• Tanzania coffee production fell 8.5% in 2022.

Tanzania’s coffee production fell by 8.5% in 2022, largely due to unfavorable weather, the country’s national bureau of statistics said Thursday. Production came in at 66,837 metric tons, down from 73,027 tons a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in its annual state of the economy report.
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Uganda

• IMF gives Uganda $120m for economic recovery.

Uganda has received continuous support for Covid-19 economic recovery, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) providing Special Drawing Rights of $120.0mn (about Shs435bn), as committed in June 2021.
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• Cnooc completes drilling first oil well at Uganda project: PAU

China’s Cnooc, which started drilling at Uganda’s Kingfisher development project in January, has moved the rig to the location of a second well as the East African nation prepares to start production in 2025, Petroleum Authority of Uganda says in a statement.
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Southern Africa
Angola

• Morgan Stanley sours on Kenyan debt as Angola offers opportunity

Morgan Stanley is turning cold on Kenyan assets as deadly protests rattle the nation’s capital, urging investors to look south for opportunities in Angola after a recent currency devaluation.
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• Angola 2Q oil exports increase 6.8% q/q to 94 million barrels

According to the Ministry of Mineral Resources, Oil and Gas (Mirempet), Angola exported 94.0 million barrels of oil in the second quarter of 2023, valued at a weighted average price of $76.0, generating a total of  $7.1bn.
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South Africa

• South Africa seeks to halt used rail track exports to curb theft

South Africa’s trade minister proposed new regulations to prohibit the export of used rail tracks and increase restrictions on copper-product shipments as the government tries to combat theft and vandalism of public infrastructure. 
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• South Africa asks US for early renewal of key trade agreement

South Africa asked the US government to consider an early extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act to help stimulate investment across the continent, Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Ebrahim Patel said.
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• South Africa electricity minister slams climate finance pact (1)

South Africa’s electricity minister attacked the country’s groundbreaking $8.5 billion climate finance pact with some of the world’s richest nations, alongside finance from other sources, whereby it will close some coal-fired power plants and re-purpose them to produce renewable energy.
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Zimbabwe

• Zimbabwe eyes world no.5 lithium spot as Chinese investors boost capacity

Chinese investors racing to secure lithium supplies could help Zimbabwe rise to become the world’s fifth biggest primary producer of the material that’s vital to battery electric vehicles and the green revolution, mining consultancy CRU said.
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• Zimbabwe’s consumer prices fell 15% in July on currency rally

Consumer prices dropped 15.3%, compared with 75% last month, and rose 101% from a year earlier after a 176% increase in June, the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency said Monday in an online briefing.
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• Greenback still rules in Zimbabwe despite local currency rally

Zimbabwe’s dollar has firmed 53% against its US counterpart over the past month, making it the world’s best performer, but the central bank is resigned to the greenback remaining key to transacting in the southern Africa nation for the foreseeable future.
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• Zimbabwe central bank owes over $4bn for food, fuel supply

Zimbabwe’s central bank has racked up debts of more than $4 billion to banks and companies including commodities giant Trafigura Group and national flag carrier South African Airways.
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• Trade deficit narrows to US$85,1 million

Zimbabwe’s trade deficit narrowed by 56.0% in June 2023, to $85.1mn from $196.0mn recorded in May-2023, with South Africa and China maintaining exports and imports as top destinations.
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• Zimbabwe plans first corn exports in 22 years after surplus

The government approved the sale after a surplus from past harvests, Agriculture Minister Anxious Masuka said. Zimbabwe had its largest corn crop in more than three decades of 2.8 million tons in 2020-21, while last year’s output was 2.2 million tons.
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Zambia

• Zambia inflation hits 15-month high as food costs soar

Zambia’s inflation quickened to a 15-month high in July on higher food costs such as corn meal and currency volatility.
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• Bank of Zambia takes over Development Bank of Zambia and Betternow Finance Company

The Central Bank of Zambia (BoZ) has informed the public that it has taken possession of two financial institutions, the Development Bank of Zambia and Betternow Finance Company, effective from July 21, 2023.
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Central Africa

Cameroon

• At 7.8%, inflation reached new high in May 2023 (INS)

In May 2023, Cameroon’s inflation stood at 7.8%, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) reveals in its recent brief on consumption prices.  The note reveals that “on average over the past twelve months, the inflation rate in May stood at 7.5%.”.
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• Cameroon’s public debt dipped slightly (-0.4% YoY) to CFAF12,137 billion at end-June 2023

Cameroon’s public sector debt was CFAF12,137 billion on June 30, 2023, according to the national sinking fund (CAA). It represents 43.8% of GDP (far less than the 70% authorized on the CEMAC convergence criteria), slightly down by 0.4% year-on-year.
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• Customs earnings: DGD collected CFAF8bln in fines in H1-2023, up 10% YoY

The Directorate General of Customs (DGD) collected CFAF8 billion in fines in the first half of 2023. This is up by 10% compared to the CFAF7.3 billion collected in the same period a year earlier, the customs administration says.
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• Cameroon’s customs revenues went up 19.3%, to CFAF486.4bln, in H1-2023 (DGD)

The Directorate General of Customs, housed at the Ministry of Finance, collected CFAF486.4 billion in customs revenues between January and June 2023. The revenue is up 19.3% year-on-year compared to the CFAF 407.8 billion collected by the end of June 2022.  It also exceeded, by CFAF16 billion, the CFAF470.4 billion target set for the customs administration over the period under review.
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